Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · YouTuber updates · US Stock Watch

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

@value-investing40 videosEnglish channel

Beats SPYHigh-conviction calls land

2026-10-182 videos

2026-10-18

US Debt Is Not Unsustainable, Just Costly... for now...

US Debt Is Not Unsustainable, Just Costly... for now...

0 bull · 0 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

OtherneutralThe host notes that unlike an individual, the US government can currently run 5%, 6%, and now 7% deficits and make it work because it can print money and borrow.Source
Bonds & Ratesneutrallong-termThe host states that as interest rates and the debt load rise, the US interest expense on the debt will climb from $1 trillion to $2 trillion within a few years, becoming a heavy burden.Source
Otherneutrallong-termThe host argues that US debt levels may be unsustainable, but the more important issue is the cost of servicing the debt and its opportunity cost; rather than whether the debt is sustainable, rising interest expenses crowding out other spending is the key problem.Source

OtherBonds & Rates

2026-10-18

QFIN - It Doesn't Get Cheaper Than This...

QFIN - It Doesn't Get Cheaper Than This...

0 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

Geopoliticsneutrallong-termThe host discusses two Chinese government interventions into lending and collection practices. He believes that over the long term this should promote a healthier, more compliant industry, but the current business model may be broken by the new regulations, leaving the loan facilitation sector facing survival questions and a far more complex operating environment—an inherent risk of doing business in China.Source
OtherneutralThe host cites Qudian (now High Templar Tech) as a cautionary example: after its lending business model was destroyed by regulation, it became practically a zombie company with lots of cash, and management is likely to siphon out the cash via low-price buybacks, posing a risk similar to the capital allocation question facing QFIN.Source
QFINneutrallong-termThe host finds QFIN extremely cheap, with $3.6B in equity versus a $728M market cap, a P/E of 1.3 and P/B of 0.3, but believes Chinese government interventions into lending and collection may have broken the business model, and management's past capital allocation (including a loss on convertible-funded buybacks) was a mistake. He considers it too crazy to buy, with the long-term outlook dependent on industry compliance and management's capital allocation.Source

GeopoliticsOther

2026-10-171 video

2026-10-17

Crash, Debt Crisis, AI Bubble Warnings or Just Stay Long?

Crash, Debt Crisis, AI Bubble Warnings or Just Stay Long?

0 bull · 0 bear · 11 neutralYouTube

SPY MSFT O KSPI

OtherneutralThe host discloses that he is fully invested, but this does not mean he is a bull or a bear; he simply sticks to his own strategy.Source
Valuationneutrallong-termCiting Paul Tudor Jones, the host notes the market still looks like 1999 and 2027 will be very challenging, adding that Jones is usually right on such things.Source
SPYneutrallong-termAt current valuations, historical results for the S&P 500 have been terrible; its shareholder yield is only about 2% (1% dividend plus 1% buyback), and if the yield rose to 4% the market would be 50% lower, so the low yield makes compounding wealth difficult.Source

OtherValuation

2026-10-162 videos

2026-10-16

How Much Of Our $1,000,000 Into Bitcoin?

How Much Of Our $1,000,000 Into Bitcoin?

0 bull · 0 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

CryptoneutralThe host views Bitcoin as a purely speculative instrument with no transactional utility, driven by gambling demand; it could rise to 100,000, half a million or a million dollars, but could also go to zero, and speculation fatigue or liquidity needs could hurt it, so his portfolio allocation is zero.Source
BLKneutralThe host argues that BlackRock and Wall Street previously called crypto a gambling situation, but as market cap and price rose they entered to collect fees; as long as they can earn fees, Wall Street will trade anything.Source
CryptoneutralThe host says Wall Street will trade manure if they can make fees on it, underscoring that its participation is purely fee-driven.Source

Crypto

2026-10-16

Global Economy Guide To Markets - Same AI Issues, Not Much Cheaper, Except Where You Don't Wanna Go!

Global Economy Guide To Markets - Same AI Issues, Not Much Cheaper, Except Where You Don't Wanna Go!

4 bull · 11 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

Recession RiskneutralThe recession that could have happened in 2022 did not occur because AI saved the economy.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksGlobal interest rates may finally move higher after more than a decade of zero rates, which would be a game changer for how the world works and pressure bond and financing conditions.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksFiscal pressures along with aging and demographics are simply a negative, as government bond supply is crowding out others.Source

Othernegative for stocksThe US net international investment position has turned significantly negative; if foreigners retreat that money, it would be a big issue to watch.Source
OtherneutralThe Eurozone economy is around 1%, nothing spectacular but also nothing too bad, even if people like to call it Eurozone debt.Source
Employmentpositive for stocksEurozone unemployment is going down, which is positive.Source
Oil & Energypositive for stocksmid-termNatural gas inventories are below the standard range before winter, so we might see another natural gas spike and higher electricity prices.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksIf the US raises rates, Europe will also have to do so, although the host is unsure whether this is a good idea.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksThe key risk is in US AI; if something happens there, it will inevitably trickle down to other economies.Source
AI CapexneutralThe global economy, emerging markets, and equity indexes are all driven by AI.Source
Valuationnegative for stocksUS developed markets are expensive, the most expensive globally but hoping on growth, with low dividend yield and buybacks not covering.Source
Valuationnegative for stocksJapan is now also moving towards expensive valuations.Source
Valuationpositive for stocksThe UK, China, and other emerging markets are getting interesting on valuations.Source
Valuationpositive for stocksDepending on how you look at it, China is much cheaper but still average, and you can look for bargains there.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksHuge spending on AI could become an issue if token costs go lower.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksAI is big and might even feel too big to fail, but it cannot be saved if it fails.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksPerhaps the biggest global risk, which can be triggered by AI reverting, is a debt crisis, as everything is fueled by debt.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksWe live in a refinancing world, and refinancing at higher rates will make things uglier down the road because real returns, not promises, are needed.Source
OtherneutralFor investors, safety is in true value, but you have to look at it stock by stock; there is no more 'this country is cheap'.Source

Recession RiskBonds & RatesOtherEmploymentOil & EnergyAI CapexValuation

2026-10-151 video

2026-10-15

GPC (Best Value), AZO, ORLY, AAP, LKQ, AIT, GWW, FAST, MSM - Sector Analysis

GPC (Best Value), AZO, ORLY, AAP, LKQ, AIT, GWW, FAST, MSM - Sector Analysis

2 bull · 2 bear · 8 neutralYouTube

GPC AZO TSLA ORLY AAP LKQ+3

Consumerpositive for stocksThe auto parts business serves non-discretionary vehicle maintenance demand, a good business that is expected to grow slightly faster than the economy going forward.Source
Recession RiskneutralThe host reminds that all projections are linear and recessions must be factored in, accepting volatility in forecasts. If a recession occurs, it would be the time to revisit and buy quality companies at better prices.Source
GPCbullishlong-termThe host views GPC as cheap relative to peers and a good value investment. The key catalyst is the 2027 separation of its industrial business; if the industrial segment trades at a peer P/E of about 30, total market cap could reach $24B versus the current $17B, roughly 50% upside, and the separation is tax-free for US investors. He expects an ~8% long-term return, though true owner earnings are only about half of net income and dis-synergies could cost $100–150M annually.Source

AZObearishAutoZone is priced for perfection and looks pricey. Adjusted free cash flow is about $2B, and at a 15x P/E the market cap would be $30B, roughly 40% below the current market cap; it has negative equity and has spent more on repurchases than true free cash flow, with double the debt of GPC.Source
TSLAneutralWhile discussing O'Reilly, the host noted there are no electrification fears in the US right now, and that any such fear is probably all about Tesla. He gave no directional view on TSLA stock, only identifying Tesla as the source of electrification risk to auto parts demand.Source
ORLYbearishO'Reilly is also priced for perfection, with a higher P/E and a $70B market cap. It has about $1.5–2B of free cash flow but $2.4B of aggressive repurchases, which the host calls financial engineering. At 15x free cash flow the market cap would be only $30B versus the current $70B, which bothers him.Source
AAPneutralAdvance Auto Parts is in distress, with the stock down significantly, no growth, higher leverage ratios and asset sales. The host views it as a clear turnaround that is not attractive to him, especially given the debt levels.Source
LKQneutralLKQ is the cheapest of the group, with a P/E of 12 and a 5% dividend, but it has not grown for years and has had European ERP implementation issues. If the ERP situation improves and free cash flow is fixed, the stock could be repriced, but the host notes this is an 'if' and he has no insight whether it will happen.Source
OtherneutralThe industrial segment of GPC (Motion) is performing well, with sales up 10%, earnings up 13%, good cash flows and low leverage. However, at a target P/E of 30 the positives appear priced in; if it is valued like peers such as Grainger after separation, it would materially lift GPC's value.Source
GWWneutralGrainger (GWW) is used as a comparable for the industrial segment, with a market cap of about $60 billion, but the host does not view that as particularly staggering from that perspective.Source
FASTneutralFastenal (FAST) trades at a P/E of about 44, and the host notes it has great returns on invested capital and that its business is doing great.Source
MSMneutralMSC Industrial (MSM) is mentioned as a comparable industrial peer with a P/E ratio of 30, used to illustrate the potential revaluation of GPC's industrial segment at similar multiples.Source

ConsumerRecession RiskOther

2026-10-141 video

2026-10-14

Research Platform Sales Pitch - Great Buys Now!

Research Platform Sales Pitch - Great Buys Now!

1 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host follows a margin-of-safety, defensive investing strategy, buying good earnings-producing businesses with some hedges, and believes this positioning should do well in whatever environment lies ahead; his portfolio is down recently, which he frames as a cheaper opportunity to check out.Source
OtherneutralThe host's personal portfolio currently holds one unnamed business; as long as the business is doing better and the equity is going higher year by year, he is happy to own it. The stock is lower now, which he says is another input to check it out, but he gives no explicit direction on price.Source

Other

2026-10-131 video

2026-10-13

SEA Limited (NYSE: SE) & COUPANG (NYSE: CPNG) Stock Analyses

SEA Limited (NYSE: SE) & COUPANG (NYSE: CPNG) Stock Analyses

1 bull · 2 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

GRAB MELI SE CPNG

GRABneutralGrab Holdings is not performing as well as Shopee (Sea's e-commerce arm), though it is competing in similar areas and building a financing arm. The host makes no directional call, just a relative fundamental observation.Source
MELIbullishlong-termMercado Libre is growing, especially in Brazil, and if it keeps growing the host thinks it will likely be a good investment over time. However, he later warns that the e-commerce super app trap could hit it one day when growth stabilizes and profits disappear.Source
SEbearishlong-termSea Limited is still growing with strong momentum, but the host expects growth to eventually stall due to competition (including TikTok) and the pattern seen with Chinese companies. When that happens, the valuation multiple should compress to a P/E of 8, implying the stock could be around 48 by 2028, roughly 50% below current levels even if earnings targets are met.Source

2026-10-122 videos

2026-10-12

Gold Looks Like A Buy Now At $4,171

Gold Looks Like A Buy Now At $4,171

2 bull · 0 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host says gold is a buy near $4,000 because the earlier rise in treasury rates made bonds more attractive and pushed gold significantly lower. However, markets only price the present; higher rates hurt the economy and AI and ultimately cure themselves, leading to lower rates, recession, or money printing ahead, which could send gold to $6,000–$10,000 in the next few years. He also frames gold as protection against the upcoming US debt crisis.Source
AI CapexneutralThe host mentions that higher interest rates are bad for AI as part of his argument that high rates hurt the economy and cure themselves, but he does not give a directional view on AI itself.Source
Bonds & Ratespositive for stockslong-termThe host notes that rising treasury rates previously made bonds more attractive than gold. However, he argues that higher rates are bad for the economy and AI, so higher rates ultimately cure themselves, meaning rates will be lower in the future, possibly accompanied by recession or money printing.Source

OtherAI CapexBonds & RatesRecession RiskFed Policy

2026-10-12

Whirlpool WHR Stock So Cheap Now, Market Cap Less Than $2 Billion

Whirlpool WHR Stock So Cheap Now, Market Cap Less Than $2 Billion

0 bull · 2 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

Market BreadthneutralHe says the economy needs a broad rebound, not just a K-shaped continuation driven by data center investors, implying the current recovery is narrow rather than broad-based.Source
Recession Risknegative for stockslong-termHe notes that lower rates do not usually arrive without a recession; typically higher rates first cause a recession, rates then fall, and only afterward does the economy rebound, so this process can take a few years.Source
WHRbearishlong-termHe believes that if the economic environment remains negative over the next few years, Whirlpool is more likely to go bankrupt and be taken over by bondholders (going private) than to rebound; housing needs to rebound within 12 months for it to survive, but he views the risk/reward as not positive and has stuck to this bearish view for five years.Source

Market BreadthRecession Risk

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