- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThe Fed started a new tightening cycle in September and the dot plot still points to one more 25bp hike this year; if the October meeting does not hike, the December meeting will likely still hike. After the hot CPI, the October hike probability rose from about 20% to 50%.Source
- Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksHotter-than-expected CPI pushed up inflation concerns, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.28%; whenever Treasury yields spike, it is a relatively bearish factor for US stocks, especially tech stocks.Source
- SPYbearishshort-termThe S&P 500 is around 7715; it will likely continue lower to test the 7610 support. If 7610 holds, the pullback is limited, with next major support at 7500. The broader market remains at high levels, so the downside is seen as a normal pullback.Source
- QQQbearishshort-termThe Nasdaq is around 26670; the first support below is around 25950, which it may test. If it holds, there is no problem; the next major support is 25000. The market still has some downside room.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termHistorically, in the 1–3 months after the Fed's first hike US stocks usually fall, but 6 and 12 months later the probability of gains rises to 63% and 75%; combined with the typical pre-midterm turbulence and strong post-election 12-month performance, October's pullback is expected and represents a buying opportunity in quality stocks.Source
- SOFIneutrallong-termSoFi is a rate-sensitive small/mid-cap growth stock that benefits from rate cuts and suffers from hikes; with the Fed restarting hikes, the stock is under pressure. Today's drop was driven by CPI-driven hike expectations and BAC's earnings dragging financials, not company fundamentals. Although not optimistic near term, the host is still following his left-side plan with small adds, now holding 520 shares with a 600 target, cost basis 13.7, and plans to add slightly below 13.7.Source
- ASMLbullishlong-termASML's fundamentals and moat are good; today's decline merely tracked the broader semiconductor pullback and did not reflect an earnings blow-up. For long-term positioning, the stock is also acceptable.Source
- SNDKneutralSanDisk's long-term logic as an artificial intelligence storage play is unchanged, but the stock has already risen about 14-fold from under 100 to 1400; one cannot expect another similar surge, and a pullback/consolidation is entirely normal.Source
- MUbullishlong-termStorage is one of the underlying drivers of artificial intelligence; the long-term trend and outlook are intact. Micron, as the only US-based company among the three memory giants, is the highest-priority name for positioning in storage. At the current ~900 level one can start a small starter position, and add further below 900, building the position gradually on the left side.Source
- ORCLbullishlong-termOracle is tightly tied to OpenAI with a massive artificial intelligence capex contract; if OpenAI develops normally and fulfills the contract, Oracle's stock can take off in the future, though any OpenAI stumble is a risk. The host holds 60 shares with an 80-share target, has added below 135, and plans to add further near the 115 support.Source
- AAPLneutrallong-termApple has performed well among the Magnificent Seven this year, but its forward P/E has exceeded 30 and the valuation is relatively high; at this level the host does not recommend chasing it, as other tech giants may offer better value. He will continue holding his 60 shares as a core position with no need to reduce.Source
- GOOGLbullishThe view on Alphabet is unchanged: around 335 one can start a small position, with 317 as the add level; those with limited cash can also wait for earnings in two weeks.Source
- Earningsneutralshort-termMicrosoft, Google, Apple, Amazon and other big tech firms report in two weeks (last week of October), while Netflix, Tesla and Meta report next week. Earnings season carries both risk and opportunity and may cause pullbacks; investors with limited cash can wait for earnings before adding.Source
- AMZNbullishAmazon's levels are unchanged: 250 is the suggested entry and 239 the add level; those not in a hurry can wait for the big-tech earnings week in two weeks.Source
- TSLAbullishTesla's valuation is high and the host does not focus on fundamentals; the stock has been range-bound as the market awaits next Wednesday's post-close earnings. For those who want to position, the 353 entry and 340 add levels can still be used, with an update after earnings.Source
- SPCXbullishSpaceX's IPO price was 135, a useful reference for insiders and institutions; below 135 one can consider appropriately opening a position.Source
- TSMbullishlong-termTSMC's fundamentals and foundry moat are deep and the host has been positive; if Thursday's pre-market earnings show no major financial or fundamental problems and the price is still around 430, one can consider buying for the long term, with 405 below as the add/support level.Source
- NFLXneutralAfter selling Netflix, the host has no plan to buy back recently; for those wanting to bottom-fish a rebound, the 65–67 zone is a reference. Netflix reports earnings next Tuesday before the open.Source
