Zac美股笔记 · YouTuber updates · US Stock Watch

Zac美股笔记

@Zac-Stock-Journal16 videosChinese channel

2026-10-231 video

2026-10-23

NFLX dropped 52%! Keep buying the dip, or admit defeat and clear positions? | Zac US Stocks Notes

NFLX dropped 52%! Keep buying the dip, or admit defeat and clear positions? | Zac US Stocks Notes

2 bull · 1 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

NFLXbullishlong-termThe host sees AI as a potential positive for Netflix by lowering production costs for its originals, and doubts small players can use AI to replace major studios within five to ten years.Source
NFLXneutrallong-termWhile YouTube and short-video apps erode viewing time, the host argues this does not necessarily mean cancellations or revenue decline, since long-form viewing remains a basic need and the two coexist — Netflix's business model is intact.Source
NFLXbearishlong-termThe host discloses he still holds Netflix and plans to fully exit. The decisive reason is worsening disclosure: subscriber counts are no longer reported regularly and engagement data moves from semiannual to annual, making it impossible to judge whether growth comes from subscribers or price hikes. Decelerating revenue, an ad-revenue miss, and a lack of hit originals reinforce the bearish view.Source

2026-10-221 video

2026-10-22

US stocks crashed again, portfolio bleeding $5700. Don't liquidate, don't panic, let's get a mental massage first | Zac's US Stock Notes

US stocks crashed again, portfolio bleeding $5700. Don't liquidate, don't panic, let's get a mental massage first | Zac's US Stock Notes

3 bull · 0 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

ASML MCD META QQQ

ASMLbullishshort-termASML fell nearly 7% and has broken the defensive level mentioned in the host's video two days ago; if it breaks the previous low he had planned to stop out. However, he disclosed that he had already added to his position earlier today when the drop was smaller, and he has not considered clearing or stop-loss yet, because the decline is not due to ASML's own fundamentals but purely dragged down by the broader market.Source
MCDneutralThe host recommended McDonald's two weeks ago and the stock has performed well, but he stresses that this does not mean McDonald's or other consumer stocks will do well in the future, and he remains cautious on the outlook.Source
METAneutralThe host views META as the biggest drag on today's market crash. Meta's revenue and profit still grew, but rising capex pushed free cash flow negative, and management did not provide a specific capex number for next year, only saying it would increase, which alarmed institutions and triggered selling. He also notes the earnings report itself was actually not bad and will do a separate valuation analysis.Source

Recession RiskGeopoliticsFed PolicyOil & Energy

2026-10-201 video

2026-10-20

ASML Dropped Almost 15%, But I'm Buying the Dip | This Company Is Even More Irreplaceable Than Nvidia | Zac's US Stock Notes

ASML Dropped Almost 15%, But I'm Buying the Dip | This Company Is Even More Irreplaceable Than Nvidia | Zac's US Stock Notes

1 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

GeopoliticsneutralThe US is considering further tightening export controls on DUV equipment to China; if the proposed Match Act bans ASML from exporting all EUV and DUV to China, its 23% China revenue would be severely hit. However, the host views such geopolitical risks as unpredictable and impossible to hedge against, so he will not short ASML before it happens and simply acknowledges the risk without worrying about it.Source
OtherneutralDisruptive chip manufacturing processes such as nanoimprint could theoretically bypass ASML's lithography machines, but there has been no practical progress in reality; until such a technology truly succeeds with good quality, high yield, and lower cost, it can be treated as non-existent. The host believes this is equally unpredictable and unhedgeable, so one should just follow the news and only worry when the technology achieves a major lab breakthrough and may enter mass production.Source
AI Capexneutrallong-termAI capital expenditure is growing fastest in 2025-2026 at 78%, then the growth rate slows from 2027 while the absolute amount keeps rising; market expectations are that it will not decline before 2030. Currently there is no sign of an AI infrastructure slowdown, but one should be vigilant for the day when the cloud giants' capex growth turns zero, because once AI investment slows, ASML's revenue, profit, and share price would have no reason to keep growing.Source

GeopoliticsOtherAI Capex

2026-10-171 video

2026-10-17

US Stocks Keep Plunging, Clear Verdict: V-Shaped Rebound Next Week or Further Sell-off? | Zac US Stock Notes

US Stocks Keep Plunging, Clear Verdict: V-Shaped Rebound Next Week or Further Sell-off? | Zac US Stock Notes

7 bull · 1 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

TSM QQQ ASML NVDA PLTR AVGO+1

InflationneutralThe worry that rising inflation will bring rate hikes is not the fundamental reason for this US stock selloff; it is only a short-term sentiment factor. The real root cause is the market's doubt about whether AI can monetize.Source
AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termHumanity already cannot live without AI, and future use cases will keep expanding, so demand for chips, computing power, electricity, storage, and optical communications will not decline over the next three to five years; the probability of an AI collapse is very small.Source
TSMbullishlong-termTSMC is advancing nearly twenty fabs globally, showing that AI-related demand is real and huge; a company like this will not rashly build unnecessary factories, so its fundamentals are solid and it is not a cyclical stock.Source

InflationAI CapexOther

2026-10-151 video

2026-10-15

US Stocks Plunge! I Lost $4,800 in a Day, Should I Cut Losses or Buy the Dip? | Zac's US Stock Notes

US Stocks Plunge! I Lost $4,800 in a Day, Should I Cut Losses or Buy the Dip? | Zac's US Stock Notes

16 bull · 1 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ MU TSM ASML NVDA+13

SPYbullishshort-termThe recent drop in the broad market is only a pullback; moving averages remain in bullish alignment with higher highs and higher lows, and even another break below the prior low with a big bearish candle would not destroy the uptrend, so the overall market is fine.Source
QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq also remains in bullish moving-average alignment and an uptrend; although the K-line has reached the upper edge of the previous box and may open inside the box, the overall trend is not a major problem.Source
Fed Policyneutralmid-termRising inflation and CPI have pushed up rate-hike expectations, which is theoretically negative for stocks, but historically high absolute rate levels did not directly cause a US stock crash; if the Fed only hikes gently from here, it does not mean stocks will necessarily crash or enter a bear market.Source

Earningspositive for stockslong-termIn the long run, what really drives stock prices is whether a company can make money; as long as revenue, profit and cash flow keep growing, there is no long-term problem, and short-term unpredictable macro or news noise will pass quickly.Source
Otherpositive for stocksI will keep holding my large-cap tech positions and continue to hold them; there is no plan to reduce the position, let alone clear it, showing a firm commitment to holding big tech.Source
MUneutralshort-termMicron's K-line has broken below the lower edge of its upward trend line, and the pre-market price fell to the 880 area, breaking the previous low; the action is somewhat dangerous and needs to be watched after the open, and one should not catch a falling knife.Source
Otherneutralshort-termThe storage-related instrument referred to as '3Dx Sandisk' has broken its previous low, continues to fall pre-market, and is weaker than Micron, so it needs further observation.Source
TSMbullishshort-termTSMC remains in bullish moving-average alignment and an uptrend; its earnings are due soon and are expected to be fine. Good earnings would raise its DCF valuation above the current share price, making it a good time to add after the report.Source
ASMLbullishshort-termASML reported good earnings but its stock fell with the market and AI hardware names; it is now at the lower edge of its upward trend line with bullish moving averages, making it a good add point, and a further drop to the lower edge of its consolidation box near the 200-day moving average would be an even better entry.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termNVIDIA also remains in an uptrend with bullish moving averages and has reached the low point of its upward trend line; if it falls a bit more to the lower edge of the trend line, that would be an even better place to add.Source
Othernegative for stocksThe named companies that are still loss-making and rely purely on debt to build data centers have seen their bond prices plunge and carry a risk of going to zero through bankruptcy; the risk is too great and I do not plan to touch them again.Source
GOOGLbullishshort-termAlphabet has no major problem; its moving averages remain in bullish alignment, it has pulled back to a relative low, and MACD is about to move above water, so the current level could be a good place to add.Source
AMZNbullishshort-termAmazon has no major problem; its moving averages remain in bullish alignment, it has pulled back to a relative low, and MACD is about to move above water, so the current level could be a good place to add.Source
METAbullishshort-termMeta has no major problem; its moving averages remain in bullish alignment, it has pulled back to a relative low, and MACD is about to move above water, so the current level could be a good place to add.Source
MSFTbullishmid-termMicrosoft's 150-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average, officially entering bullish alignment, indicating it has entered a medium-to-long-term upward channel and is now in a healthy pullback; however, to add, one should wait for a deeper pullback, and I would not add at the current high.Source
AAPLbullishshort-termApple did not fall yesterday and was one of the few large-cap tech stocks able to hold up and move sideways, so it clearly has no problem either.Source
UBERbullishshort-termUber fell with the market yesterday but did not break the lower edge of its consolidation box; if the market improves slightly, it is expected to continue rising.Source
BKNGneutralBooking has not risen much, but it continues to hold firm here, which already counts as a decent performance in the current market.Source
NFLXneutralNetflix is also able to move sideways here, which already counts as decent in the current market environment.Source
MCDbullishMcDonald's rose slightly, which is already considered very good performance among consumer stocks.Source
NKEneutralWhile consumer stocks generally held up, Nike was the exception and did not hold up like the other consumer names.Source
SPGIneutralS&P Global was in a rebound process but was dragged down slightly by the market yesterday; the decline was not large and the overall picture is fine.Source
UNHbullishUnitedHealth gapped up and then sold off after its recent earnings, but the healthcare sector performed well yesterday and UnitedHealth also rose nicely.Source
LMTbullishWhile other space stocks fell, Lockheed Martin still rose, which counts as a good performance.Source

Fed PolicyEarningsOther

2026-10-131 video

2026-10-13

Adobe down 70% and I'm buying the dip! Why I'm passing on cheap-looking Google | Zac's US Stock Notes

Adobe down 70% and I'm buying the dip! Why I'm passing on cheap-looking Google | Zac's US Stock Notes

1 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

ValuationneutralThe host argues that P/E ratios are unreliable for judging whether a stock is cheap, because net income can be distorted by mark-to-market gains on securities (e.g., Alphabet’s SpaceX stake), tax-law changes (e.g., Meta’s asset write-down), or accounting fraud (e.g., Luckin Coffee, Enron). He therefore relies mainly on DCF valuation and uses P/E, PEG, P/B, and P/CF only as supplementary metrics.Source
GOOGLneutralmid-termThe host believes Alphabet (GOOGL) is more reasonable than earlier (e.g., May) and its prior overvaluation is being repaired, but he cannot tell whether it will head up or down, and the direction may not even relate to earnings quality. The headline P/E of 17.7 looks cheap, but net income was inflated by mark-to-market gains on holdings such as SpaceX; adjusting for core operating profit growth implies trailing net income of about 149.971B and a true P/E of roughly 28.7, not the cheapest among mega-caps. His DCF valuation is 249, and the price has moved closer to it; after the Oct. 28 earnings and the symmetrical triangle apex, a direction should be chosen.Source
OtherneutralThe host believes generative AI currently cannot match the quality of human creators for images, text, or video—AI-generated food photos fail on appeal, AI voice breaks sentences incorrectly, and AI-written scripts lack personal thinking. In editing, AI also cannot yet replace professional tools like Photoshop or Premiere because of their granular control and because many creative needs cannot be clearly expressed as prompts. However, an AI-generated Photoshop-like app (Compositor) shows generative AI is both a threat to Adobe and a potential opportunity for it to integrate AI.Source

ValuationOther

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