What Zac美股笔记 said in this video:
- GeopoliticsneutralThe US is considering further tightening export controls on DUV equipment to China; if the proposed Match Act bans ASML from exporting all EUV and DUV to China, its 23% China revenue would be severely hit. However, the host views such geopolitical risks as unpredictable and impossible to hedge against, so he will not short ASML before it happens and simply acknowledges the risk without worrying about it.Source
- OtherneutralDisruptive chip manufacturing processes such as nanoimprint could theoretically bypass ASML's lithography machines, but there has been no practical progress in reality; until such a technology truly succeeds with good quality, high yield, and lower cost, it can be treated as non-existent. The host believes this is equally unpredictable and unhedgeable, so one should just follow the news and only worry when the technology achieves a major lab breakthrough and may enter mass production.Source
- AI Capexneutrallong-termAI capital expenditure is growing fastest in 2025-2026 at 78%, then the growth rate slows from 2027 while the absolute amount keeps rising; market expectations are that it will not decline before 2030. Currently there is no sign of an AI infrastructure slowdown, but one should be vigilant for the day when the cloud giants' capex growth turns zero, because once AI investment slows, ASML's revenue, profit, and share price would have no reason to keep growing.Source
- ASMLbullishlong-termASML is the foundational and virtually irreplaceable layer of the AI supply chain, with an extremely wide moat in lithography and no competitors for the next five to ten years. Its latest earnings beat and free cash flow drive a DCF valuation of about $2,270, far above the current share price of around $1,600. Although the chart shows a converging triangle with short-term downside risk and the P/E is elevated, the plan is to stop out if the prior low of 1,572 breaks; given the acceptable risk-reward and an opened observation position, the host is most bullish on ASML's fundamentals.Source