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4 videos
- Employmentneutrallong-termThe host worries workers' pricing power is eroding as income lags inflation, eventually boiling over into a labor-market recession, though layoffs are still being absorbed for now.Source
- ORCLbullishmid-termHe admits his $133 floor call was wrong (it hit ~127), but sees Oracle's balance sheet strengthening, free cash flow turning positive sooner, and CDS plummeting.Source
- Market Breadthpositive for stocksshort-termCredit default swaps peaked two days ago and keep falling — fear has already peaked and the crowd talking about skyrocketing CDS is missing the boat.Source
- MSFTbullishmid-termMicrosoft beat earnings with its larger services segment growing faster; its CDS are stable and priced far below even Nvidia's, so risk is low despite the $25B raise.Source
- Geopoliticsneutralmid-termIran talks are on and off; a deal would be bullish and kill rate-hike odds, but the deadlock persists and oil above $110 would weigh on income and jobs.Source
- GOOGLbearishlong-termHe believes Google search is genuinely being destroyed by AI and the company is papering over it, but treats it as an isolated disaster rather than a market-wide signal.Source
- Fed Policypositive for stocksmid-termA dovish Fed (Warsh) cut expected hikes from 3.1 to 2.5; he thinks this raises the odds of a one-and-done cycle, and an Iran deal would take hikes off the table entirely.Source
- Inflationnegative for stocksmid-termDovish talk lifted 5-year breakevens to levels last seen at the September hike; he concedes this is the bearish counter-argument to his one-and-done view.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termHe is convinced the AI productivity build-out is just getting started, with the real euphoric rally and real disruption still ahead, not behind.Source
- AAPLbullishshort-termOn big-cap debt-raise 'suck days', stocks like Apple tend to do well, and it popped at the open.Source
- NVDAbullishlong-termHe maintains strong bullishness on cheap AI hardware (Nvidia, SK Hynix, Seagate, Western Digital) and discloses buying the dip even more.Source
- Oil & Energynegative for stocksmid-termOil stuck above $110 a barrel would erode personal income and accelerate jobless concerns — a problem, though he remains bullish overall.Source
- Otherpositive for stocksshort-termOn hardware panic days, healthcare names (Eli Lilly, Moderna) and Apple do well; he is very bullish on healthcare.Source
- QQQbullishmid-termHe views Google and ServiceNow as isolated issues, recommends buying the Qs into year-end, and expects all-time highs by Black Friday with higher highs by year-end.Source
- Market Breadthpositive for stockslong-termThe host argues the market is in the capitulation/anger stage of the sentiment cycle, which is exactly where long-term money is made, so current fear is an opportunity.Source
- FTNTbullishlong-termThe host calls Fortinet's 26% crash over a trivial guidance shortfall (5.15 vs 5.17 billion) mind-blowing, highlighting a double beat, 52% free cash flow growth, and four times cash versus debt.Source
- GOOGLbullishlong-termThe host sees Google as a top-five 'Palantir setup': a 10% drop driven by short-sighted capex panic, while its cloud grows 103% with a 560 billion backlog, at 19x forward earnings and a 0.6 PEG.Source
- NVDAbullishlong-termThe host calls NVIDIA one of the best setups he has ever seen: revenue up 106% yet only 13.5x forward earnings and a 0.3 forward PEG, sold off simply because traders moved on to shinier things.Source
- PLTRbullishlong-termThe host says Palantir's flat year turned it into a reasonably priced software monopoly: revenue up 93%, forward PEG cut from 5.7 to 1.26, making it another wonderful setup.Source
- AMZNbullishlong-termThe host calls Amazon an elite setup: 43% operating income growth, the world's biggest cloud sold out into 2026-2027, yet trading at 18x forward earnings and three times sales.Source
- AVGObullishlong-termThe host discloses exposure to both Broadcom and Marvell, endorsing buying both, and praises the Broadcom CEO's conservative copper-first approach.Source
- NVDAbullishlong-termNVIDIA's combined $4B investment in Marvell and Lumentum is a hedge: copper serves margins today, but NVIDIA wins either way if fiber prevails.Source
- LITEbullishlong-termThe host likes Lumentum and the fiber-optics theme, calling it early, and regrets not buying before the acquisition-driven pop, though he has not yet established a position.Source
- MRVLbullishlong-termThe host owns Marvell and would buy the dip, arguing the Lumentum deal creates a vertically integrated photonics behemoth despite near-term dilution.Source
- MRVLbearishshort-termMarvell lacks the balance sheet for an $83B deal, so debt and share issuance will pressure the stock in the near term.Source
- DELLbullishmid-termThe host notes in passing that Dell has done well despite a mixed business and has gotten a whole lot cheaper.Source
- GLWneutrallong-termThe host is excited about Corning's fiber opportunity but notes only half the business is booming, making its 1.39 PEG merely fair, and he does not own it.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termThe host repeatedly argues the AI hardware boom is just getting started, recommending diversified hardware exposure, with a euphoric rally still ahead.Source
6 videos
- Earningsneutralshort-termThe host notes Bessent's interview landed right during Microsoft and Google earnings, calling the timing as bad as it gets.Source
- Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe host finds Bessent and Warsh coordinated and thinks it strange for a Fed figure to openly float a scenario where inflation plummets fast.Source
- Oil & Energyneutralmid-termThe host relays Bessent's point linking the 10-year yield to oil prices and arguing against slowing growth just to fight an energy shock.Source
- Geopoliticsneutralmid-termThe host relays Bessent's claim that the Iran blockade is working and Iran's economy could contract as much as 25% year-over-year, worse than Russia's post-Soviet contraction.Source
- Inflationneutralmid-termThe host is skeptical of Bessent reviving the word 'transitory' for inflation, saying it takes either big nerve or implies a deal is coming.Source
- Othernegative for stocksmid-termWith 50% of Canadian loan originations in ARMs, rate hikes have created an affordability crisis forcing people out of homes, pushing prices down as supply rises.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksmid-termThe host expects another mortgage-rate or Fed rate hike by year-end, with the 10-year Treasury rising again after Canada's preemptive hike.Source
- Otherneutrallong-termUS ARM share is only ~10-11% of applications, a fraction of Canada's 50% and of 2003-2006 levels, so no 2008-style crash, though real estate is not attractive right now.Source
- Employmentnegative for stockslong-termThe host sees a labor-market rollover as AI takes jobs as more likely than a housing crash, which would force interest rates to plummet to bail out employment.Source
- Otherpositive for stocksmid-termThe host discloses buying a property for $875K in a $1.2-1.3M neighborhood, expecting $200K-$300K of equity after an $80K fix-up, insulated even if prices fall 20-30%.Source
- Othernegative for stocksmid-termMarkets with heavy new construction and vacation-home buying, like Texas and Florida, are still falling knives and carry real risk for buyers now.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termRepeating a year-long call, the host says Manhattan is a great place to buy because punitive building policies will restrict supply and drive prices up, not down.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksmid-termThe host argues Powell's unexpectedly dovish hold is a complete six-week flip-flop, possibly driven by political pressure to ignore inflation, undermining Fed credibility.Source
- Inflationnegative for stocksmid-termThe host criticizes Powell for reviving the 'left of the decimal' inflation framing, effectively tolerating 2.9% inflation and repeating his June mistake.Source
- Oil & Energynegative for stocksshort-termThe host notes Powell's unusual hypothetical about oil prices suddenly falling, hinting a possible Iran deal could push oil lower.Source
- MSFTbullishshort-termThe host discloses owning Microsoft and buying the dip; his team's 565 target was hit to the penny and the stock is only being weighed down by Google. Microsoft's largest segment grew, the opposite of Google.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termGoogle's stumble is idiosyncratic disruption, not an AI Armageddon: capex guidance was raised, backlog is $561B, future commitments exceed $1T, and as SK Hynix said, one company going bad won't slow industry-wide AI spending.Source
- GOOGLbearishshort-termGoogle's drop stems from ad monetization: search missed by 2.3% and AI chat mode contains no sponsored results while locking users out of ads, self-cannibalizing its biggest business. He has long worried about this and owns no Google stock.Source
- MSFTneutralmid-termHe cautions Microsoft's report contains trickery: roughly $13B of 'other investments' (upfront neo-cloud payments) means true free cash flow is near zero, and reclassifying leases from 15 to 25 years suppresses depreciation, flattering apparent pricing power.Source
- LITEbullishshort-termReacting to reports that Marvell is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum, the host says he wanted to buy it and expects the stock to rise on the news.Source
- TMUSbullishshort-termT-Mobile beat on postpaid adds and EPS, and the host thinks its iPhone handoff deal is a very smart idea.Source
- FTNTneutralshort-termFortinet raised guidance with several beats, and the host is puzzled by the roughly 20% after-hours drop, offering no directional call.Source
- EBAYbullishshort-termeBay's active-buyer beat should create enthusiasm, with net revenue also coming in slightly ahead.Source
- Inflationneutralmid-termThe host calls Bessent's 'transitory' framing of the energy price shock a party-line claim, signaling skepticism of the official inflation narrative.Source
- Market Breadthneutralshort-termThe host flags that Google's drop could weigh on the broader market while stressing the data points to a company-specific issue.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termGoogle's miss is idiosyncratic disruption, not an AI bust; both Google and Microsoft raised capex, and SK Hynix's own warning framed this as single-company risk rather than an industry slowdown.Source
- GOOGLbearishmid-termThe host owns no Google, argues the search miss exposes the core ad business (75% of revenue), and believes the query-growth metric misleadingly bundles AI chats; EPS missed badly.Source
- MSFTbullishshort-termThe host owns Microsoft, bought the dip before the close, and had targeted the 565 line, which was hit to the penny after a cloud and Azure beat.Source
- LITEbullishmid-termThe host long wanted to buy Lumentum and regrets not doing so before the rumored Marvell acquisition; he had liked its near-doubling of net revenues.Source
- GLWneutralmid-termThe host wonders whether the Marvell-Lumentum deal could affect fiber maker Corning, flagging it only as a possible part of the cluster to consider.Source
- MRVLbearishshort-termMarvell lacks the balance sheet for an $83 billion Lumentum deal and will likely have to issue stock, which justifies the share price drop.Source
- MRVLbullishlong-termThe host discloses exposure to both Marvell and Broadcom, arguing a Lumentum deal would let Marvell own every layer from lasers to custom XPUs, creating a moat.Source
- AVGObullishlong-termThe host likes Broadcom's CEO and copper-first approach, notes Broadcom holds 60% of the ASIC market, and discloses exposure to it alongside Marvell.Source
- NVDAneutrallong-termThe host reads NVIDIA's $2 billion investments in both Marvell and Lumentum as Jensen hedging his copper bet, without stating a directional view on the stock.Source
- Geopoliticspositive for stocksshort-termThe host is convinced an Iran deal is coming, likely before the next Fed meeting, citing repeated hints in the press conference.Source
- Bonds & Ratespositive for stocksmid-termThe host notes market interest rates have already rolled over despite rising oil, and expects rates to come down further on an Iran deal.Source
- Employmentnegative for stocksmid-termThe host names the labor market his number-one canary: if AI breaks it, stocks go 'in the toilet'; he calls it the weakest part of the economy.Source
- ORCLbullishshort-termThe host notes Oracle's credit default swaps peaked two days ago and are now declining, an inflection he views as bullish.Source
- CRWVbullishshort-termThe host says he called the peak in CoreWeave's CDS two days ago and the continued decline confirms the credit-risk momentum is over — bullish.Source
- GMEbearishshort-termThe host states in passing that the GameStop-style momentum trade is over.Source
- METAbullishshort-termThe host notes Meta's credit default swaps are now coming down along with the broader CDS unwind, which he calls a bullish inflection.Source
- Fed Policyneutrallong-termThe host explains the Fed's shift to fewer rate-decision meetings from 2027, making double hikes or cuts more likely, but says he is unsure how he feels about it.Source
- Oil & Energynegative for stocksshort-termThe host expects oil prices to fall on a geopolitical deal, noting the Fed chair pointedly raised the scenario of oil prices suddenly dropping.Source
- Fed Policypositive for stocksmid-termThe host reads the hold as the Fed buying time and calls it a 'closet dovish Fed' that will be better positioned to ease by December.Source
- Inflationnegative for stocksmid-termThe host flags that the five-year breakeven just hit its highest since the September hike, with the market pricing a dovish Fed that will 'screw us on inflation.'Source
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