Meet Kevin

Prepare for the Anthropic IPO [Full Warning].

10 bull · 1 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

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• CRWV▲bullishmid-termThe host reiterates his prior call that the CoreWeave doom loop was overblown, with the company funding itself via customer prepayments and Nvidia financing rather than market borrowing.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stocksmid-termThe host argues the mega-caps underwriting AI compute commitments act as a floor and a hedge, not loan sharks, which underpins the whole AI capex trade.Source
• QQQ▲bullishshort-termThe host reads the Nasdaq chart as showing AI got a bit oversold, with confidence recovering.Source

• ADBE▼bearishlong-termThe host sees AI tools eroding legacy software like Adobe, noting he cancelled his own subscription after a year of non-use.Source
• AMD▲bullishlong-termThe host speculates AI models will shift to locally-run licensed versions, which benefits local compute enablers like AMD.Source
• DELL▲bullishlong-termThe host names Dell as a beneficiary of enterprise local AI buildouts.Source
• NVDA▲bullishlong-termThe host names Nvidia as a beneficiary of local AI buildouts, with the frontier model race sustaining demand as well.Source
• Inflation●neutralmid-termThe host notes hopes that chip inflation peaks around 2027 as memory supply comes online, but hedges with 'who knows.'Source
• Valuation↗positive for stockslong-termThe host maintains AI is a bubble but the real bubble is still ahead, implying current prices are surprisingly cheap.Source
• Other●neutralshort-termThe host will not buy Anthropic at the IPO due to insiders having no lockup, but might buy a 10-20% dip, seeing limited downside barring a market correction.Source
• SPCX▲bullishmid-termThe host believes SpaceX has bottomed around 132 and is headed up from here; he has started buying.Source
• PLTR▲bullishlong-termThe host discloses he owns Palantir and is not selling, acknowledging Anthropic's competitive threat but citing its moat and cash flow, with buybacks as the upside hope.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termThe host sees Anthropic as well-capitalized with strong enterprise traction and a cheaper sales multiple than Palantir; the risks are real but not as bad as they seem.Source

The Fed JUST Released their Great Reset Economic Playbook.

9 bull · 1 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

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• Oil & Energy↘negative for stocksmid-termSaudi output is back to pre-war highs and oil flows keep rising; US inaction suggests oil prices have peaked, and a deal would send them tanking.Source
• Geopolitics●neutralmid-termRubio says the US can simply do nothing; post-election pressure for a deal has faded and prediction markets show deal odds down to 15%, so no deal is likely soon.Source
• SPY▲bullishmid-termAll bad catalysts are behind us and priced in; the market shifts from a high-volatility hike-catalyst period to a low-catalyst one, and his stance is to buy every dip.Source

• MU▲bullishshort-termHe bought a basket of 200-day moving average stocks including Micron, up 12% today as part of a broad recovery in oversold tech.Source
• QQQ▲bullishmid-termTech got ridiculously oversold and is now in a broad recovery; he expects it to continue even without an Iran deal and even with hikes, since hikes are priced in.Source
• Market Breadth↗positive for stocksshort-termHedge fund AI exposure fell from 47% to 32% of books and deleveraging hit the 99th percentile of five years; he reads the panic selling as capitulation.Source
• Inflation●neutralmid-termFive-year inflation expectations sit at 2.25%; tariff effects should wane and energy pressure unwinds if the conflict resolves, though he thinks oil falls faster than the Fed expects.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termHe believes the true AI euphoria is still ahead, the market is cheap, and he keeps buying; Anthropic's oversubscribed IPO and OpenAI's surging revenue show a floor under AI.Source
• Fed Policy●neutralmid-termThe market already prices in a December hike plus more; without an Iran deal the Fed hikes, but the bad news is digested so impact is limited.Source
• Employment↗positive for stockslong-termLayoffs are down and the labor market is improving; AI job replacement is still early-innings with no sign of a labor recession near, which he calls bullish.Source
• CRWV▲bullishmid-termCoreWeave confirmed it won't issue unsecured debt at current yields, funding capex via Microsoft/Nvidia prepayments and existing loans; he says it has basically bottomed.Source
• META▲bullishshort-termMeta's credit default swaps are falling, and easing credit risk is a leading indicator that the market can relax and rebound.Source
• ORCL▲bullishshort-termOracle's credit default swaps are falling, signaling the credit-market panic is over and supporting a rebound.Source

The Stock Market Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

13 bull · 4 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

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• QQQ▲bullishshort-termQQQ opened up 1.9%, back above 675, and the host expects it to head back to 700 after yesterday's failed breakout.Source
• Bonds & Rates↗positive for stocksshort-termThe 10-year yield hit exactly 5% and capped out; the host sees 5% as a clear psychological buy signal where bond buyers step in.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termOpenAI's revenue jumped nearly 50% to $10B in Q3, re-accelerating, and its 1.2B active users form a real moat — evidence AI demand is still accelerating.Source

• CRWV▲bullishmid-termCoreWeave's report eased debt fears with $13B revenue guidance above the prior range and no reliance on unsecured debt markets; the host calls the fears overblown and notes CDS coming off peak.Source
• TTWO▲bullishshort-termTake-Two is up 3% today, appears to have bottomed around October 30th, and bounced off the 200-day moving average on the weekly chart.Source
• META●neutralshort-termMeta is sitting right at the 642 line; the host notes the level without stating a direction.Source
• AAPL▲bullishshort-termApple at 353 keeps grinding higher, which the host calls very impressive.Source
• NVDA●neutralshort-termNVIDIA slipped back into sell mode and dragged the Qs, but later stabilized, which the host views as a modest positive.Source
• Oil & Energy↘negative for stocksshort-termSaudi output rebounded near pre-war levels and Trump's lack of urgency on Iran is helping oil prices come down, despite continued pipeline attacks.Source
• Geopolitics↘negative for stocksmid-termThe host believes an Iran deal is unlikely near term and the standoff could drag on indefinitely like the China trade war, with prediction-market odds slipping to 14%.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termRate-sensitive sectors like residential investment have declined on higher mortgage rates, which makes the host bullish real estate — he likes buying what everyone else hates.Source
• MSTR▼bearishlong-termThe host is very bearish on MicroStrategy's stretched fund structures, expecting them to go to zero in the next recession — though not Bitcoin itself.Source
• Fed Policy●neutralmid-termThe host sees Fed policy as binary on Iran: a deal means no hike, no deal means a hike, with markets now pricing about 3.2 hikes by September.Source
• Inflation↘negative for stockslong-termWith tariffs and the Iran energy shock each driving about a quarter of inflation and expected to wane, the host sees inflation turning favorable in 2027 as tariffs lap and the Middle East relaxes.Source
• AVGO▲bullishshort-termBroadcom is back to 350, within a buck of his 355 line, and the host calls it very cheap right now.Source
• TSLA▲bullishshort-termTesla is almost at 400 and the host cheers it on, without giving supporting reasoning.Source
• SNDK▲bullishmid-termSanDisk is one of the four memory names in the basket the host says to buy, up 8–13% on the day.Source
• MU▲bullishmid-termThe host explicitly recommends buying the four-stock memory basket (Seagate, SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk), all up 8–13% on the day.Source
• STX▲bullishmid-termSeagate is one of the four memory names in the basket the host says to buy, up 8–13% on the day.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host agrees with Bowman that the AI investment boom may still be in its early days, with investment rising rapidly while best uses are determined.Source

Lawsuit Filed: Nvidia Stock & Corruption Allegations.

2 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

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• NVDA●neutralmid-termThe host views the securities class action as rushed ambulance-chasing; median settlements are ~$17M, the law doesn't require Nvidia to track chips, and proving damages will be very difficult.Source
• NVDA●neutralmid-termThe host does not see Jensen Huang stepping down and thinks prediction-market odds of his exit are overpriced, with the fears likely resolved within six months, favoring the 'no' side.Source
• NVDA●neutralshort-termThe host acknowledges the affair news drove the stock down but frames the key open question as whether it is a short-term technical move or a fundamental derating.Source

• NVDA▲bullishlong-termThe host discloses a small Nvidia position and argues that at ~18x earnings with ~34% expected growth, the stock trades at a sub-1 PEG and is fundamentally worth over $300, having already discounted the lawsuit.Source
• AMD▲bullishmid-termThe host discloses buying AMD last week around $430 after it hit a low of $402; it is now back at the 520 line and is picking up the Nvidia pain trade.Source

Critical CPI Inflation Report & Fed Rate Impact

0 bull · 5 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

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• Fed Policy↘negative for stocksshort-termThe hot print effectively confirms a December hike and puts Waller's floated 50bp move on the table; the debate has shifted from whether to hike to how much.Source
• Bonds & Rates↘negative for stocksshort-termYields are up roughly 10bps on the day with the two-year spiking; the host expects the curve to keep flattening until the Fed stops hiking and sees rate-sensitive assets suffering.Source
• AI Capex↘negative for stocksmid-termThe host rejects the idea that the economy is no longer rate-sensitive, noting hyperscalers issuing debt are rate-sensitive too; higher rates plus slowing earnings growth are a poor setup for the AI trade.Source

• QQQ▼bearishshort-termThe Nasdaq is falling as yields rise 7.4bps, pressuring the tech trade on the day.Source
• Oil & Energy●neutralmid-termOil falling despite hot inflation suggests lingering hope for an Iran deal; a deal before the next Fed meeting would be the only window to skip a hike.Source
• Inflation↘negative for stocksshort-termHeadline 0.4 and core 0.3 mark a third straight hot core reading with broad-based pressure across shelter, insurance, airfare, and medical care; the host sees little to like in the report.Source
• Inflation●neutralmid-termThe five-year inflation expectation is only drifting slightly higher and remains low, likely because markets assume the Fed will hike, reducing long-run inflation concern.Source
• SPY●neutralshort-termThe S&P bounced off 675 pre-market but failed to hold it after the hot CPI; whether it can regain 675 decides stabilization versus further selloff.Source

New Evidence Found: Learjet 60 Crash

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Prepare for Tomorrow: VIOLENT Stock Market

16 bull · 2 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

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• QQQ▲bullishshort-termHe discloses buying the QQQ dip at 650 and adding more this morning, seeing the market bounce on the 675 line as an early Black Friday sale.Source
• Inflation↗positive for stocksshort-termHe expects headline CPI at 0.3 versus 0.6 last month, with a best case of 45% of categories at 3% year over year, which would take pressure off the Fed to hike in December.Source
• Fed Policy●neutralshort-termThe bond market prices an 84% chance of a December hike, but collapsing five-year inflation expectations and tightened financial conditions from the selloff argue the Fed does not need to hike; tomorrow's CPI decides.Source

• Inflation↗positive for stocksshort-termPPI expectations are high at 0.4 ex food, energy, and trade, which in his view leaves room for a downside surprise.Source
• Other↘negative for stocksmid-termHe calls CoreWeave a dog whose CDS rose after the election as its stock fell, with markets concerned it cannot raise money to pay its bills.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termHe fully agrees with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America that demand, not regulation, drives the AI capex cycle, that the midterm reaction is overdone, and that demand indicators support aggressive capex plans.Source
• SPCX▲bullishlong-termHe went bullish on SpaceX at 132 in September, maintains it as a great buying entry point given its return on investment, and discloses owning it.Source
• AMZN▲bullishlong-termHe discloses owning Amazon, likes every name on Morgan Stanley's overweight list, and notes Amazon's spend commitments doubled from this summer.Source
• AVGO▲bullishlong-termHe would rather own Broadcom than Google and notes Broadcom trades at roughly a 0.6 PEG, making it dirt cheap.Source
• GOOGL▼bearishlong-termHe explicitly states he does not own Google and is bearish on it; despite its TP8 work with Broadcom, he would rather own Broadcom.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termHe is strongly bullish on Cloudflare for spending to pull businesses into its ecosystem, becoming the software 2.0 layer and anchoring customers into ARR.Source
• META▲bullishlong-termHe discloses owning Meta and likes its plan to spend on sales teams mirroring Palantir's forward-deployed engineers to anchor customers into ARR, which he sees as the big revenue growth driver.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termHe is a big fan of CrowdStrike and SentinelOne as endpoint management names, arguing cybersecurity will boom because every company needs it.Source
• Other●neutralHe does not own IBM but suggests Morgan Stanley's software call could be a hint on IBM, without committing to a direction.Source
• MSFT▲bullishlong-termHe discloses owning Microsoft and reads its winding down of the Oracle AI rental agreement as a shift from training toward agents, not reduced appetite for AI capex.Source
• Other↗positive for stockslong-termHe says Anthropic's roughly $350 billion war chest after the IPO and commitments spread to 2045 make him bullish on the IPO, calling it the definition of software 2.0.Source
• Other↗positive for stocksmid-termAgainst Citi's bearish copper call, he turns bullish copper starting end of Q1 next year, once visibility emerges on how little the Democratic Congress can do, which he also sees as bullish for the whole market.Source
• MU▲bullishmid-termSeagate, SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron are all below their 200-day moving averages and dirt low; he suggests buying a basket of them as an opportunity we'll look back on.Source
• NVDA▲bullishmid-termHe discloses owning Nvidia, is a fan of buying the selloff, and cites a roughly 0.5 PEG ratio as dirt cheap.Source
• QQQ▲bullishlong-termThe Nasdaq 100 trades at 18.4 times earnings, the lowest since 2020, which he views as dirt cheap.Source

Jensen Cheated | AI got F**K'd

4 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

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• Geopolitics●neutrallong-termChina's CXMT can now make DRAM cheaply at ~80% gross margins using old DUV technology, showing export restrictions failed and pressuring US memory stocks.Source
• NVDA▲bullishlong-termJensen will not be fired and any divorce share transfer would be gradual; NVIDIA trades at about half AMD's valuation with far superior margins, so it remains cheap.Source
• AMD▲bullishlong-termThe host holds a small AMD position, sees it at roughly a 1 PEG with potential to more than double as data center exposure and pricing power grow.Source

• Market Breadth↗positive for stocksshort-termWith NVIDIA down 3.5% overnight but the NASDAQ-100 nearly flat, the host says the index-level market doesn't care and expects the market to go up tomorrow.Source
• NVDA▲bullishmid-termThe host says the Jensen Huang scandal is overblown, selling NVIDIA at a 0.6 PEG is unjustified, and any dip should be bought; he holds a small current position.Source

Trump's NEW Operation in Iran: Prepare.

0 bull · 3 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

• Geopolitics↘negative for stocksmid-termThe host argues the three-pronged pressure campaign — naval blockade, economic sanctions, and the new land blockade — shows the US and Iran are nowhere near a deal and the standoff will drag on.Source
• Oil & Energy↘negative for stocksshort-termOil prices sit back at summer highs, matching the worst period of the conflict, with only nascent good-faith negotiation signs offering slight relief.Source
• Geopolitics↘negative for stocksshort-termThe host admits he was wrong that the October strike pause signaled progress; renewed US fire on Iranian cargo ships means things are getting worse, not better.Source

• Fed Policy●neutralshort-termPrediction markets imply a decent chance of another hike in December, with this week's CPI and PPI releases likely driving the Fed's decision.Source
• Market Breadth●neutralshort-termThe host doesn't think the market deserves to sell off, but fading deal odds put downward pressure on the deal-led rally narrative and dampen enthusiasm.Source

The Economy JUST Flipped.

6 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

• Employment↗positive for stocksThe host calls the labor report absolutely insane and says it removes doubt about the labor market; private payrolls, the household survey, unemployment, participation and broad-based hiring all came in strong, with wage growth rebounding, so he rates it very good.Source
• Inflation↗positive for stocksThe host says average hourly earnings were revised from 0.1% to 0.3% and then came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected, which he calls very good and still consistent with the Fed's roughly 2% inflation goal.Source
• AI Capex↗positive for stockslong-termThe host dismisses data-center delay fears as nonsense because over 86% of 2027 construction is already vertical and legislative effects would not arrive until middle of next year; he says yesterday's sell-off was mostly driven by leveraged ETFs rather than a capex slowdown.Source

• Other●neutralThe host is strongly anti-leverage, attributing yesterday's sell-off mostly to leveraged ETF rebalancing into the close and forced hedge-fund liquidations from margin calls, and says debt adds fear; no price direction is stated.Source
• Market Breadth↗positive for stocksThe host discloses that he bought the dip yesterday, argues panic and leveraged liquidations create opportunities, and says he sits very high on the bull-bear scale while maintaining the market could go straight up.Source
• Fed Policy●neutralThe host says the jump in December rate-hike odds to 74% makes logical sense after the strong labor report, without stating a directional price view.Source
• Bonds & Rates●neutralThe host views the 10-year yield around 4.1% as contained and says staying below 4.9% is good; a larger rise would make the market nervous.Source
• Employment↗positive for stocksThe host cites Nick T.'s chart that US payroll growth is picking up after a near stall last summer and agrees it is true, noting three- and six-month averages are doing fantastically and unemployment is gently declining.Source
• Geopolitics↗positive for stocksThe host says a potential US-Iran breakthrough sounds really good and maintains that the market could go straight up with or without an Iran deal, while the war and election remain volatility overhangs.Source