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2026-11-021 video

2026-11-02

US Stocks: Still Out of the ICU Yet; Will Things Change After the Midterms? [2026-11-02]

US Stocks: Still Out of the ICU Yet; Will Things Change After the Midterms? [2026-11-02]

3 bull · 11 bear · 12 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ SOXX ORCL MRVL LITE+7

SPYbearishshort-termThe host says the S&P 500 opened higher but reversed, broke the half-year line and closed below it for two days; the two bearish candles suggest a correction is brewing, with 7200 as a possible stabilization area under a pessimistic decline scenario.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksshort-termThe host attributes a possible reason for the S&P pullback to Google's earnings shock and tight free cash flow at cloud giants, saying the AI trade shows signs of temporarily burning out while also admitting a larger black swan is hard to guess.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe host says the Nasdaq has some support near 25,000 and the annual line at 24,700, but warns that history will not simply repeat and unexpected events can overturn rational expectations, so no clear direction is given.Source

OtherneutralThe host emphasizes technical analysis assumes history repeats, but market moves cannot be predicted accurately because unexpected events can overturn rational expectations; he gives no market direction.Source
Othernegative for stocksshort-termThe host says a fear-and-greed reading of 23 is in extreme fear but not a bottom signal; compared with historical extreme readings, there is still room for a further selloff.Source
Geopoliticsneutralshort-termThe host says the faint hope of renewed U.S.-Iran talks is neither clearly good nor bad, because strikes could resume after the midterms and negotiation hopes could turn into renewed conflict; he stresses geopolitical risk and uncertainty without giving a clear direction.Source
Oil & Energypositive for stocksshort-termThe host says Iran negotiation hopes pushed oil lower that day, but the United States could still strike Iran after the midterms; if conflict resumes, oil could turn higher and rise sharply.Source
Otherneutrallong-termThe host frames the midterm outcome as both important and not important: policy certainty may reduce volatility and historical statistics show gains a year after elections, but monetary policy and corporate earnings matter more, so he gives no clear market direction.Source
Fed Policyneutralmid-termThe host says PMI staying in expansion and unemployment near full employment make December rate-hike odds mainly dependent on inflation; this is a view on policy drivers rather than a market direction.Source
Market Breadthneutralshort-termThe host says semiconductors and hardware are the core AI sectors, and although the sector heat map is mixed, weakness there can keep the broader market under a correction shadow; the conditional and uncertain wording gives no clear direction.Source
SOXXbearishshort-termThe host expects the semiconductor index to remain in a pullback even though the annual line, the 10,000 round number and a Fibonacci level align as possible support; he still sees roughly another 3% decline before a rebound becomes likely, framing the drop as payback for the large April advance.Source
ORCLbearishshort-termThe host says Oracle keeps falling on heavy volume and that both equity issuance and added debt hurt the stock; high leverage, interest-bearing debt ratios and rising credit-default-swap prices indicate bond-market concern, with a break below 114 opening downside toward 100.Source
MRVLbearishshort-termThe host notes that both the acquirer and target plunged; after the merger, Marvell holders face dilution and the decline looks forceful and hard to stop.Source
LITEbearishshort-termThe host says the optical-communications target also plunged; former holders would own 33% after the merger, and the declines in both stocks look forceful and hard to stop.Source
AI Capexneutrallong-termThe host thinks Musk's expectation that low-earth-orbit AI and cloud-computing capacity will exceed ground capacity by 2029 is too fast and unrealistic, but gives no stock-price direction.Source
SPCXneutrallong-termThe host says SpaceX has many assets and businesses that are hard to value conventionally, which should keep volatility high and may leave the stock in a wide trading range for a long time; no clear upside or downside direction is given.Source
AMZNbullishlong-termThe host agrees with Ackman's value-screen reference to Amazon, saying its current results and trends are good and he favors its investment value.Source
MSFTbullishlong-termThe host agrees with Ackman's value-screen reference to Microsoft, saying its current results and trends are good and he favors its investment value.Source
NFLXneutralshort-termThe host says Netflix lacks a phenomenon-level slate and faces competition for screen time from self-media and video platforms, so weak growth makes multiple expansion difficult; however, the large decline and a forward P/E near 18 make it cheaper, and he set a volume monitor to wait for a possible bottom-volume opportunity without stating a clear direction.Source
AAPLneutralThe host says Apple stands out among the seven mega-cap names because it has avoided heavy capital spending and related cash-flow strain, has a terminal-entry advantage and an AI partnership, and is used as a defensive name; he describes low volatility and stable price action but gives no clear direction.Source
Market Breadthnegative for stocksshort-termThe host says that if Apple's earnings trigger a sharp drop, it would be more negative for the broader market tomorrow, a bearish near-term sentiment call.Source
Earningsneutralshort-termThe host observes that so far this earnings season seems to have produced mostly declining reactions, but immediately weakens the judgment by asking whether it is an illusion, so no clear direction is formed.Source
PLTRbearishshort-termThe host says that despite Palantir's earnings and fourth-quarter revenue guidance beating expectations, the daily chart's short-term trend is poor and the current price action has downward inertia.Source
Cryptonegative for stocksshort-termThe host says the crypto sector had a major weekend negative: a centralized exchange was hacked, some funds remained missing and large withdrawals followed after withdrawals resumed; he also says crypto legislation would be harder to advance if Democrats control Congress, leaving the backdrop negative.Source
COINbearishshort-termThe host says this centralized exchange is about to break down technically, amid a major crypto-sector negative and harder legislative progress, making the short-term chart weak.Source
Otherneutralshort-termThe host discloses that his public account continued to lose money and says the stocks he is considering selling keep falling while he cannot find a sell时机; it is a comment on portfolio-management difficulty rather than a clear direction for any single name.Source

AI CapexOtherGeopoliticsOil & EnergyFed PolicyMarket BreadthEarningsCrypto

2026-10-301 video

2026-10-30

Massive Bleeding Everywhere. [2026-10-30]

Massive Bleeding Everywhere. [2026-10-30]

6 bull · 4 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ SOXX AAPL PLTR AMD+1

SPYneutralshort-termThe S&P 500 broke below its medium-term trend. Although the lower shadow eased panic over consecutive crashes, it still needs to reclaim the half-year line next week, otherwise the overhang of decline will persist.Source
QQQbearishshort-termThe Nasdaq gapped down and broke below its three-month platform, a breakdown move; the gap plus breakdown is a strong bearish signal. If it keeps falling, it may find support around 25,000.Source
SPYbullishlong-termUS stocks have trended upward for decades, and the probability of a historic top this time is not high; since the dot-com bubble, buying the S&P index at any point eventually made money.Source

Otherpositive for stocksshort-termAs long as liquidity does not deteriorate, defensive sectors such as healthcare, energy, and retail may stay relatively resilient during a market crash; if a liquidity crisis occurs, all stocks would fall.Source
AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termThe AI revolution is far from over; in a few to a dozen years it will permeate most aspects of life and work, and robots will serve humans. Thus long-term opportunities remain, though the short term is undergoing a violent shakeout.Source
SOXXbullishshort-termAfter a significant correction in Q3, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is near its long-term moving average, with multiple supports around 10,000, including the round number, annual line, and golden ratio; a rebound is likely after the short-term decline.Source
Otherpositive for stocksshort-termAfter the midterm elections, policy uncertainty will decline and political gridlock will reduce sudden policy shocks; historical statistics show the market tends to rise after midterms, and US stocks may enter a period of relative policy stability.Source
AAPLbullishshort-termApple's capital spending is low and it does not blindly build its own large models; by controlling the device entry and partnering with Google, it stays relevant in the AI era, a strategy the market accepts. If Q4 guidance strongly beats, the stock has room for a small rise.Source
PLTRneutralshort-termPalantir has a high valuation and high market expectations; commercial business growth is outpacing government business, easing reliance risk on US government contracts. Its post-earnings swing will be far larger than Apple's, expected to move more than 11%.Source
AMDbearishshort-termAMD's stock has broken below its half-year line today; if next week's earnings cannot lift it back above the half-year line, the trend will turn weak.Source
RDDTbearishlong-termReddit, a US version of a forum, has a pessimistic outlook in the AI era because users now get answers directly from AI and Google prioritizes AI summaries, reducing traffic demand. The host will not buy back the stock and may even remove it from his watchlist.Source
Cryptonegative for stocksA major cryptocurrency hack undermines confidence in stablecoins; compared with holding dollars in a bank to invest in stocks, crypto assets carry theft risk, negatively affecting stablecoins.Source

OtherAI CapexCrypto

2026-10-291 video

2026-10-29

When is the bottom for Google? Two more stocks crash after hours. [2026-10-29]

When is the bottom for Google? Two more stocks crash after hours. [2026-10-29]

3 bull · 6 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ GOOGL MSFT LLY AMZN+3

SPYneutralshort-termDespite weak tech, advancers outnumbered decliners and the S&P closed with a small bullish candle, so the index stays in a stable sideways range.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe Nasdaq gapped down, but the host believes the gap is not a breakaway gap and should be filled.Source
GOOGLbearishshort-termSlowing search growth and heavy capex are persistent problems, so Google is near-term bearish and may grind lower.Source

AI Capex

2026-10-281 video

2026-10-28

Warsh: Have fewer meetings. After-hours drop makes even the Oracle of Omaha cry. [2026-10-28]

Warsh: Have fewer meetings. After-hours drop makes even the Oracle of Omaha cry. [2026-10-28]

3 bull · 2 bear · 8 neutralYouTube

SPY ORCL GOOGL MSFT MU SNDK+3

SPYneutralshort-termThree small up candles but the index remains range-bound, and the Fed decision gave no direction, so the host maintains a continued sideways view.Source
Fed Policyneutralmid-termThe host reads this as a hawkish pause with continued tightening ahead, no dovish cut expectations, and markets pricing two more 25bp hikes by March.Source
Bonds & Ratesneutralshort-termThe host argues Canada's hike was really to defend the CAD exchange rate during the US pre-election pause, preventing capital outflow and imported inflation, and it worked.Source

Fed PolicyBonds & RatesAI Capex

2026-10-271 video

2026-10-27

US Stocks: This stock is almost done falling.【2026-10-27】

US Stocks: This stock is almost done falling.【2026-10-27】

11 bull · 2 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ BA META V STX+7

SPYneutralshort-termThe host sees the S&P range-bound and balanced short-term, digesting profit-taking while awaiting a major catalyst such as the Fed decision or war developments.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe host sees the Nasdaq oscillating in a wide 2,000-point band between 25,000 and 27,000, with no direction until the range breaks.Source
Market Breadthpositive for stocksmid-termCiting Deutsche Bank and historical patterns, the host notes stocks tend to perform strongly after midterm elections, while cautioning that rates, AI sustainability, and war also factor in this year.Source

Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe host expects the Fed to hold rates steady but anticipates a hawkish Warsh press conference emphasizing inflation over labor, likely causing sharp intraday volatility.Source
Employmentpositive for stocksshort-termThe host interprets the first consumer confidence rebound in four months as driven by a strong labor market with ample jobs, historically low layoffs, and optimistic employment expectations.Source
BAbearishmid-termThe host sees multiple red flags in Boeing's report — delayed 737 production targets to 2027 and 2027 free cash flow far below estimates — calling it a multi-year problem with a mid-term downtrend likely turning into a slow bleed.Source
METAbearishshort-termThe host notes Meta's massive capex has pushed free cash flow negative, forcing large financing via equity or debt, both of which pressure the stock.Source
METAbullishlong-termThe host views Meta's opened financing channels as securing ample funds to avoid falling behind in the compute arms race, which is positive long-term.Source
Vbullishlong-termThe host highlights Visa's earnings beat, 15% annual net revenue growth, and dividend hike, expecting the stock to resume rising after this pullback despite the after-hours dip.Source
STXneutralshort-termThe host attributes Seagate's drop despite an earnings and guidance beat to sell-the-news behavior after intraday gains and elevated expectations causing fatigue in storage names.Source
MUneutralmid-termThe host discloses a small Micron position, calling it range-bound now — the easy money phase is over, but with capacity fully booked, no earnings inflection, and modest valuation, a big drop is also unlikely.Source
Otherpositive for stocksmid-termThe host notes the cybersecurity sector keeps rising, citing a BofA report projecting 7% security budget growth by 2027 and BofA's target raises on names like CRWD.Source
KObullishlong-termThe host sees Coca-Cola's beat as confirming its defensive appeal, with an uptrend across short, mid, and long timeframes.Source
WMTbullishlong-termThe host views Walmart's post-earnings dip as a small golden pit, with earnings expectations and price prospects still favorable.Source
MCDbullishmid-termThe host sees McDonald's rebounding from a sharp pullback as possibly a good entry, noting defensive names tend to make money over a multi-year hold.Source
NBISbullishshort-termThe host sees Nebius's 11% surge as a technically needed rebound off the yearly moving average after an excessive pullback.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termThe host acknowledges rising debt costs at new cloud providers signal risk, but as long as nothing blows up the AI trade continues; the big five legacy clouds carry far less risk.Source
GOOGLbullishlong-termThe host argues Google is not a bankruptcy story; at ~$320 it nears Berkshire's ~$307 cost basis, shorts won't push far given Berkshire's backing, and such a monopoly-like franchise is a buy on dips — or below Buffett's cost.Source
TSLAneutralThe host discloses trimming a small amount of Tesla due to oversized positioning; it remains his largest holding, with Google second, and today's Tesla rally helped his account recover.Source

Market BreadthFed PolicyEmploymentOtherAI Capex

2026-10-261 video

2026-10-26

US Stocks: The Money Pit is Here. Musk's Warning. [2026-10-26]

US Stocks: The Money Pit is Here. Musk's Warning. [2026-10-26]

6 bull · 4 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ AMZN MSFT NVDA SPCX+3

SPYneutralThe S&P 500 rose today but remains in a range-bound consolidation on the daily chart; year-to-date gains are enough that bulls struggle to push further, while the lack of major bearish news leaves bears without a breakthrough, so the market is expected to lack directional choice before Wednesday's Fed decision.Source
QQQneutralThe Nasdaq rose today, but neither the close nor the high reclaimed the half-year line, leaving the daily structure weak; if it can stand above the half-year line in coming days, the downward momentum may halt, but from a mid-term view it remains range-bound with no clear direction.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThe Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting to avoid midterm election impact; after the Nov 3 election, the probability of a hike at the next meeting will rise sharply. Based on market expectations, Warsh's post-meeting remarks are expected to remain hawkish, with inflation still the keyword. Across four major central banks, developed economies remain in a hiking cycle; whoever stops hiking or turns dovish first will see their currency weaken, and when the Fed tightens, other freely convertible economies can only follow.Source

Othernegative for stockslong-termFiat currency rate hikes are negative for non-interest-bearing gold and silver; gold has kept correcting this year and barely held the $4,000 level. If it falls another $200-300, a severe head-and-shoulders top would form and short pressure would build, with bulls defending $4,000. Against a hiking backdrop, resuming a bull market is difficult.Source
Oil & Energypositive for stockslong-termOil broke to a new high since the Iran war at $115.98, opening further upside potential; US-Iran relations are likely to keep conflicting with the issue unresolved, keeping oil elevated possibly into 2027, and higher oil would only bring a more hawkish Fed.Source
AMZNbullishshort-termIf Anthropic's IPO is valued at $2 trillion, Amazon, as the largest external shareholder with a 15%-20% stake, would reap over $100 billion in investment gains; the listing also secures Anthropic's outstanding commercial orders, benefiting Amazon and other cloud giants.Source
MSFTbullishshort-termMicrosoft's benefit from Anthropic's IPO is small: it holds a minor stake in Anthropic. Microsoft's Q3 revenue is expected around $90.6bn with adjusted EPS of $4.71 and cloud growth of 45%, though quarterly capex may exceed $50bn. It announced a voluntary layoff plan affecting 60,000 staff, about 27% of employees, but the stock was little affected and traded steadily; Wednesday's earnings may cause about $27, or 5%, swings.Source
NVDAbullishAfter Anthropic's IPO raises huge funds, NVIDIA, as the AI bellwether and chip seller, will ultimately benefit, since downstream large-model companies getting money supports NVIDIA's chip sales.Source
SPCXneutralAlthough SpaceX and Tesla raise tens of billions to deploy computing power, they have cash flows from Starlink and auto sales, giving them much stronger risk resistance than pure neocloud providers; if a neocloud fails, SpaceX would definitely not acquire it.Source
CRWVbearishshort-termAlthough CRWV is a well-known Nvidia-backed neocloud provider, its CDS surged over 1,000bps, bond borrowing costs spiked, and its stock plunged on huge volume, suggesting an ominous outlook; if debt risk emerges, the AI supply chain could still see a shakeout.Source
TSLAbullishTesla rebounded over 5% today, though its intraday attempt at the annual line was capped; it reported earnings last week, releasing earnings-season risk. Although Wall Street banks raised their target valuation for the SpaceX-Tesla merger, the host stressed that, by comparison, if Anthropic can be worth $2 trillion, other tech giants with normal business models feel they are worth a hundred times more. He discloses Tesla is 1/3 of his public IBKR account and today's rebound contributed major profit, showing a bullish stance.Source
GOOGLbullishshort-termAlphabet has closed lower for five straight days and broke below its annual line, likely pre-earnings de-risking; but it is one-sided to think Google is failing just because search is weakened by AI, as its growth engine remains cloud services revenue, with Bank of America expecting Q3 cloud revenue to grow 93% YoY, a sizable increment. In addition, Anthropic's IPO benefits Google, which holds a 14% stake and supplies custom AI chips; the host also discloses Google as a heavy position in his public account.Source
Othernegative for stockslong-termRepresented by Meta's $95bn financing and share split to let others buy more new shares, tech giants' equity issuance and new listings keep growing; although US stocks have abundant money, money and stocks are like water and flour, and continuous issuance expands the dough until there is eventually not enough money, implying liquidity risk.Source

Fed PolicyOtherOil & Energy

2026-10-231 video

2026-10-23

US Stocks: Next week might be even more explosive. [2026-10-23]

US Stocks: Next week might be even more explosive. [2026-10-23]

1 bull · 5 bear · 8 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DIA VZ T AMT+3

SPYneutralmid-termLong-term trend remains up, but the host sees real suspense over a possible 5-10% near-term correction, leaning toward a brief pullback with support at 5670 and 5500.Source
QQQneutralshort-termNasdaq closed below the half-year line two days running; support sits at 18000 and the 17143 year line, a break of which could become a dip-buying opportunity.Source
DIAneutralshort-termEven mature sectors failed to hold up as declining stocks far outnumbered advancers; market breadth has clearly deteriorated.Source

Inflationneutralmid-termConsumer inflation expectations hit their highest since May; the host views inflation as stubborn, Fed tools as limited, and the Canada tariff exemption as largely ineffective.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termA rate hold next week is highly likely, but Powell is expected to sound hawkish on the 2% inflation goal, which could make next week difficult for stocks.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksshort-termThe 10-year yield easing to about 3.9% is positive, but credit spreads on tech issuers have widened sharply over data-center cash strain and debt expansion.Source
Market Breadthneutralmid-termThe host rejects BofA's France-debt relief argument but agrees that a peak in tech credit spreads would warm the bond market and lift tech stocks.Source
VZbearishmid-termSpaceX's entry into mobile means carving up existing share, a major blow to incumbents like Verizon.Source
Tbearishmid-termSpaceX entering the saturated mobile market would split existing share, a major blow to incumbents like AT&T.Source
AMTneutrallong-termAmerican Tower yields 3.69% and SpaceX could become its fourth tenant adding revenue, though the host cautions against over-eagerness.Source
CCIbullishlong-termSpaceX's 80,000-tower demand is new business for tower REITs; CCI yields 4.94% and works as a long-term dividend hold, though chasing is discouraged.Source
MSFTneutralshort-termMicrosoft lacks explosive growth but offers steady growth over the next five quarters and strong earnings certainty; Azure growth and capex are the focal points.Source
GOOGLneutralshort-termAlphabet needs beats on revenue, profit and guidance plus strong cloud growth; capex should stay in the 195-205 billion range, as further increases would draw investor scrutiny.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksshort-termThe three mega-cap reports could flip the AI trade: flat capex pressures semis, while heavier AI spending hurts the giants themselves — both outcomes are negative for the market.Source

InflationFed PolicyBonds & RatesMarket BreadthAI Capex

2026-10-221 video

2026-10-22

Plunged into extreme fear instantly.【2026-10-22】

Plunged into extreme fear instantly.【2026-10-22】

5 bull · 7 bear · 9 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DIA SOXX CRWV META+5

SPYneutralThe S&P 500's decline today is not scary, closing at 7663 and not below 7620, still in a post-breakout consolidation; however, with multiple moving averages above and only the long-term MA below, the technicals feel somewhat bearish, and the horizontal consolidation has lasted too long.Source
QQQbearishshort-termThe Nasdaq fell 2.6% today, with the daily candle breaking below the half-year line, technically bearish; if it declines further, it could see 25000, about 1000 points lower. If it later breaks the annual line, it may present another bottom-fishing opportunity.Source
DIAneutralThe Dow has risen for three straight days and is firm relative to the S&P and Nasdaq; its rise reflects risk-aversion flows, not a full exit, but a rotation from tech into defensive stocks.Source

SOXXbearishThe Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.72% today and is heading toward 10,000; it is expected to see back-and-forth and support around 10,000, and the index's bottom-seeking indicates that the AI 'sell-shovels' trade is also flashing a pullback signal.Source
OtherneutralThe CNN Fear & Greed Index fell into extreme fear with a reading of 20; although extreme, the reading is still high. At 20 it is awkward—there is room to become more fearful or it could rebound—so it is not a qualified bottom-fishing entry point.Source
OtherneutralThe VIX rose 14% today, indicating the options market expects higher future volatility for the S&P 500, but the magnitude is not very large; although sentiment is panicked, it has not reached the darkest moment, making a direct bottom difficult.Source
GeopoliticsneutralMiddle East tensions have deteriorated and the Iran war is unlikely to end; oil supply disruptions will continue, supporting oil prices and inflation.Source
Oil & Energypositive for stockslong-termAffected by deteriorating Middle East tensions, oil prices are near the year high of 113 and about to break the highest level since the war; if it breaks out technically, oil could surge on technical buying by international futures speculators to the 130–150 area and stay higher for longer.Source
Inflationpositive for stockslong-termIf the US-Iran war re-escalates, oil prices may stay high next year, dashed expectations for oil prices and inflation to fall, keeping inflation elevated.Source
Fed Policypositive for stocksshort-termThe market worries the rate-hike cycle may not be as short as previously expected; the probability of the Fed hiking again after the midterm elections is extremely high, and it may also keep rates high in 2027 to curb high inflation.Source
Valuationnegative for stocksHigh interest rates put major pressure on stock market valuations; countries with weak fiscal strength and heavily indebted companies can easily collapse under a prolonged high-rate environment.Source
CRWVbearishCRWV and ORCL CDS prices rose sharply, showing the bond market is increasingly worried about their debt defaults; with long-term Treasury rates at highs, financing costs are very high, and the market lacks confidence that borrowing to build data centers can pay off, making profits distant.Source
METAbearishMeta has negative free cash flow and may issue new shares to raise funds, with no money for buybacks, putting downward pressure on the stock; at the same time, its 5-year CDS hit a record high as bond investors demand higher rates.Source
MSFTbullishMicrosoft has the lowest bond spread increase among these tech giants and its free cash flow remains relatively ample, indicating the smallest credit risk and financing pressure.Source
ORCLbearishAmong these tech giants, Oracle has the highest bond spread increase, reflecting the market's greatest concern about its credit risk; even an established top-five cloud provider faces rising financing cost pressure.Source
SPCXbearishAmong these tech giants, SpaceX's bond spread increase is second only to Oracle, showing the market has begun pricing default risk; the higher CDS reflects increased default risk.Source
OtherneutralNormally an Asian market crash does not necessarily transmit to the US main battlefield, but this time the significant declines in China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other markets may spread pessimism and reverse-transmit, becoming one reason for the US drop.Source
AI CapexneutralAlthough emerging cloud providers have financing risk, their 80 billion capex is too small within the 1.8 trillion AI capex; even if individual companies fail, cash-rich cloud giants would take over, so new cloud bond risk will not pose a major risk to the overall AI theme.Source
Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host remains super-long-term bullish on US stocks, believing a four-year rally needs a rest; AI is a technological revolution, and during such revolutions US stocks can rise for up to ten years, so at four years it is still early.Source
GOOGLneutralAlphabet has broken below its annual line for two days, with precarious technicals, and lags in launching AI agents; however, while breaking the annual line is technically a bearish signal, if valuation is reasonable, below the annual line is a bottom-fishing opportunity. Berkshire's average cost is around 307; another drop of about ten dollars would reach Buffett's bottom line.Source
WDCneutralWestern Digital fell again after its earnings release after hours; the host questions whether the storage stock will retrace all its earlier gains, going back to where it came from.Source

OtherGeopoliticsOil & EnergyInflationFed PolicyValuationAI Capex

2026-10-211 video

2026-10-21

Truly rock solid. [2026-10-21]

Truly rock solid. [2026-10-21]

9 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ SPCX TSLA META GOOGL+1

SPYbullishmid-termThe host expects the S&P's long consolidation to resolve upward, with bulls grinding to new highs; a near-high yearly close would signal a cross-year rally.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe Nasdaq has half-year-line support and bears cannot mount a decline, but bulls are exhausted after big yearly gains, so it remains range-bound with a harder path to an uptrend than the S&P.Source
Oil & Energypositive for stocksshort-termMiddle East oil flows have recovered toward pre-war levels with Saudi and UAE output up; crude near $110 could break above its wartime high and push further higher.Source

Bonds & Ratesneutralmid-termThe 10-year yield peaked at 5.3% and holds at 5.15%; long-end rates at century highs are restrictive on their own, so the bond market has done the Fed's tightening for it, reducing the need for more hikes.Source
Fed Policypositive for stocksshort-termThe host expects the Fed to hold next week and delay any hike to December, giving equities a six-week window to keep rallying between meetings.Source
SPCXbullishmid-termSPCX posted its first profitable quarter with revenue and EPS well above expectations, the lockup expiry caused no big selloff, and Wall Street raised targets sharply — big-bank endorsement itself should lift the stock.Source
TSLAneutrallong-termThe host thinks a SpaceX-Tesla merger looks attractive on structure but is unlikely to close given government approval, the China business divestiture, and antitrust hurdles — though the discussion itself pushes both stocks up.Source
TSLAbullishmid-termTesla's report had many declines but beat on revenue and net income, gross margin rose to 19.6%, and first-time disclosure of FSD subscriptions and supercharger growth signals management confidence — a positive sign.Source
METAbullishmid-termMeta posted record revenue and sharply higher adjusted EPS, announced a stock split, raised the capex floor, and its AI agent Muse succeeded with no competing product yet; after-hours momentum was stronger than Tesla's.Source
GOOGLbullishlong-termGoogle broke its yearly line without serious bad news; Berkshire's biggest Abel-era buy is underwater at a ~$348 cost basis. The host says quality companies are worth buying on big breakdowns — this is buying below the Buffett family's cost.Source
Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host holds 50 CRCL shares at a cost in the low $90s with a small position; he remains bullish on its prospects, considers the ~$20B market cap cheap, and is prepared to hold long-term.Source
IBMbullishlong-termIBM beat on revenue and profit and rose after hours; the host's position is still underwater but he is unconcerned, expecting it will recover to breakeven sooner or later.Source

Oil & EnergyBonds & RatesFed PolicyOther

2026-10-201 video

2026-10-20

US Stocks: Several Important Earnings Reports, Mixed Results After Hours.【2026-10-20】

US Stocks: Several Important Earnings Reports, Mixed Results After Hours.【2026-10-20】

4 bull · 0 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

SPY MMM MU MSFT GOOGL

SPYneutralmid-termThe S&P 500 met resistance at the 30-day MA and found support at the 60-day MA, remaining in a consolidation pattern with resistance above and support below. After more than two months of sideways trading, the probability of a breakout or breakdown is rising, but the direction will depend on tech giants' earnings over the next three weeks; no bullish or bearish direction is stated.Source
Earningsneutralmid-termTech giants' earnings will be concentrated over the next three weeks and are the key catalyst for the S&P 500's post-consolidation direction. Although the direction is unknown, the time to place bets and make decisions is near.Source
AI CapexneutralThe five cloud giants' AI capex rose from under $100 billion in 2020 to over $800 billion in 2026, and combined capex is expected to soon exceed operating cash flow, forcing continued financing to compete in compute. The AI financing space has accumulated many circular deals over three years (e.g., Nvidia using its credit to help Oracle finance, buyer guaranteeing buyer); accounting is fine but participants are closely tied together, which is indeed a potential risk.Source

EarningsAI Capex

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