What 老李玩钱 said in this video:
- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThe host expects the Fed to hold rates this week, but if it unexpectedly hikes 25bps, the result would deviate from expectations and US stocks could crash.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThe host warns that if Fed Chair Warsh's post-meeting remarks are hawkish—saying inflation pressure remains high and the tightening cycle is not over—it could put considerable pressure on the stock market.Source
- MSFTneutralAfter Microsoft rallied above 530, its forward P/E is still below the host's 30x baseline for tech giants, but relative to peers like Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA and Meta it is already on the high side. He does not recommend chasing or adding; investors who bought low with oversized positions may trim, while new entries should wait for a drop below 500 toward the 490 support.Source
- MSFTbearishshort-termAmong Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, which keep raising AI capex, only Microsoft still has positive free cash flow. If Microsoft's FCF turns negative after this report, the stock will suffer a major hit; thus the report should be judged mainly on AI capex and free cash flow.Source
- AI CapexneutralMicrosoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta continue to raise AI capex (ai_capex); Meta's FCF has already turned negative and was punished by Wall Street, while only Microsoft's FCF remains positive. The host believes other financial results are unimportant and the focus should be solely on AI capex and free cash flow.Source
- GOOGLbearishshort-termAlphabet has broken below its triangle consolidation and the 317 support, forming a triple top, which is a short-term bearish reversal pattern; therefore its current technical setup is unfavorable.Source