Hedge funds blowing up and leveraged retail facing margin calls could force more selling and push the market lower over the next few days.
The host says that in this earnings season, any company failing to post stellar results gets its stock punished, with the S&P 500's 4% intraday decline adding downside pressure.
The host explicitly says he thinks the market will go a little bit lower, without giving a specific price or timeframe.
The host cites a 100% hit rate since 1942 across 21 midterm cycles, with an average gain of 16.6% and a smallest gain of 2.5%, arguing that even the minimum November-to-June move would bring the market back to all-time highs and make new highs by June very likely.
He treats a drop in the Fear and Greed Index to 5 or lower as confirmation of maximum fear, and because one-sided bearish noise has repeatedly been wrong, he expects that condition to precede a massive slingshot and an amazing buying opportunity.
Historical data since 1990 shows the VIX never closed more than 7.2% above a 60%+ spike-day close and fell sharply on average over the following days, so he expects volatility to be crushed quickly.
NVIDIA closed at 183 below the 190 level, officially in a bear market down over 25% from highs; next support at 170 with resistance around 191.
The host says the Nasdaq-linked ETF had broken down and confirmed a bearish move, quickly reaching the first observation area; although long-term excess-return investors should watch lower levels, today's large bearish candle lacked support and is not a confirmed buy point, so a sideways base would be preferable.