We are in an AI bubble where companies pay any price for chips; most will waste monumental amounts of money and never get a return, so one should own the semiconductor 'picks and shovels' instead.
Longer term, over the next ten years, the host sees gold reaching $10,000 plus, but only after it first rebuilds energy through a time phase.
The host has said all year that XLE would rise: after three years of sideways energy-building it is breaking out into a new bull phase, and he positioned his trading group for it.
With major catalysts (election, Microsoft and Amazon earnings, Israeli election, Iran, Fed, and AI fundraising) set to be removed by next Wednesday, the potential for fear diminishes, leaving now as an opportunity for the market to recover.
The host says Meta CDS skyrocketed again and trades like a meme stock; he thinks buying CDS has become a crowded meme trade because prices keep going up, reflecting greater default risk after Meta's $90 billion raise.
Reacting to Amazon's memo urging engineers to be pickier about AI usage, the host expects companies to increasingly question how much they spend on AI.
Crude oil is above $100 with Brent at 115 to 116 and remains in a higher-high and higher-low uptrend, which the host views as negative for inflation, though no specific price target or timeframe is given.
Google is down over 21-22% from its all-time highs and in a bear market, which the host views as an opportunity to sell puts and keep accumulating for the long term, with next support at 298 to 300.
The host believes the bad situation in the fertilizer sector (phosphates and potash) will eventually end; when the bounce back comes, there will be a lot of pent-up demand and revenge fertilizer application, benefiting MOS. Analysts focus too much on the next quarter, but the real question is when the complete sector will change.
Alphabet has broken below its triangle consolidation and the 317 support, forming a triple top, which is a short-term bearish reversal pattern; therefore its current technical setup is unfavorable.
Broadcom's ~$161.2 billion financing lease with Anthropic is essentially non-cancellable except default, giving higher certainty than SpaceX; Broadcom also provides ~$42 billion convertible note financing and may gain equity upside. Technically it formed a three-day stop-fall pattern, so a short-term rebound is likely, but below 365 it remains a rebound.
Anthropic's updated S-1 filing disclosed over $280 billion of compute commitments with SpaceX and Broadcom; together with Meta's equity raise and SpaceX's $40 billion GPU debt deal, these are bullish for semiconductor demand, with Broadcom's portion more certain.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF has formed a standard three-day stop-fall pattern, which is short-term bullish and gives semiconductors room to rebound; however, until it reclaims 536 it is only a rebound, not a confirmed reversal.