阳光财经 Sunny · YouTuber updates · US Stock Watch

阳光财经 Sunny

@SUNNYFINANCE40 videosChinese channel

2026-10-051 video

2026-10-05

US Stocks: Ready for Another Big Rally? [2026-10-05]

US Stocks: Ready for Another Big Rally? [2026-10-05]

14 bull · 0 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ GOOGL AMZN AAPL DAL+5

SPYbullishmid-termThe S&P 500 is being driven higher by mega-cap tech, passive ETF inflows, reasonable valuations versus the 10-year average, and Q4 earnings season; the index could push toward the 8,000 level in Q4.Source
QQQbullishmid-termThe Nasdaq hit a new high of 27,544 today; tech stocks driving the index are the strongest bullish force and a key reason I am bullish on the broader market.Source
GOOGLbullishAs one of the mega-cap tech star stocks, Alphabet is either at long-term support or making new highs and has a high probability of rising; the host holds it and it contributed to account profit.Source

AMZNbullishAs one of the mega-cap tech star stocks, Amazon is either at long-term support or making new highs and has a high probability of rising.Source
AAPLbullishAs one of the mega-cap tech star stocks, Apple is either at long-term support or making new highs and has a high probability of rising; however, a stronger dollar would create FX losses on its overseas earnings.Source
Market BreadthneutralThe current S&P 500 rally is mainly driven by mega-cap tech, not a broad bull market across all stocks; leadership is narrow.Source
Recession Riskpositive for stocksshort-termHistorically October tends to close higher, with smaller policy black-swan risk before midterms; a once-in-a-century crisis looks unlikely this October, and the month probably still rises.Source
Bonds & Ratespositive for stocksAlthough a stronger dollar hurts multinationals' overseas earnings through FX losses, it attracts international capital to US stocks; netting the pros and cons, dollar appreciation is still overall bullish for US equities.Source
DALbullishDelta Air Lines has been in an uptrend over the past year, but airlines are not a high-profit industry; if buying, only a small position is appropriate, not a heavy weighting.Source
SPCXbullishshort-termAfter its IPO, SpaceX bottomed, rebounded, consolidated, and then posted two large green candles; driven by the Starship 15 mission and an overweight rating, the stock is expected to keep rising toward the 200–300 target zone.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termNVIDIA hit another new high; after a long consolidation breakout it is expected to grind higher with a small slope. Upcoming earnings should still grow 70% revenue with a $235B buyback, forward P/E is only 17x, DBS sees no bubble, and the host holds the stock (it contributed to account profit).Source
ValuationneutralThe S&P 500 forward P/E is 19x and the equal-weight index 16x, around 10-year averages; for semis, fast EPS growth means valuations are not excessive and current multiples are acceptable if profits keep rising.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termAnthropic's valuation reached 2 trillion and it may IPO in November; despite high uncertainty, this is bullish for the AI sector because post-IPO proceeds will let cloud providers rent compute and buy data centers, starting a new AI capex cycle.Source
SHOPbullishmid-termShopify deeply benefits from the AI agent ecosystem by connecting payment and merchant shelves directly to the Muse agent, gaining large potential revenue from a closed AI traffic loop. AI has empowered rather than killed it; after rebounding almost all of its decline, momentum is good and it could challenge its prior high.Source
TSLAbullishTesla is one of the host's brokerage account holdings and contributed to the day's profit, representing a long position.Source
IBMbullishshort-termIBM performed poorly among holdings, closing 14 consecutive small red candles under short pressure; after such a streak, the probability of an up day should rise, though the main force still seems to be suppressing it. The host holds IBM.Source

Market BreadthRecession RiskBonds & RatesValuationAI Capex

2026-10-021 video

2026-10-02

What Does the King of US Stocks Gapping Up Mean? [2026-10-02]

What Does the King of US Stocks Gapping Up Mean? [2026-10-02]

7 bull · 1 bear · 10 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DIA NVDA TSLA TER+5

SPYbullishmid-termThe S&P 500 gapped up and closed above all moving averages, a rare bullish signal after consolidation; if it makes another new high, it could exit the consolidation range and start a modest uptrend.Source
QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq 100 hit a new high of 27,353 today, showing potential to break out of its consolidation range; if it continues to move higher next week, the consolidation pattern will end.Source
DIAbullishshort-termThe Dow has consecutive bearish candles and its short-term direction is down, but it has fallen near its long-term moving average and is expected to stop falling and rebound soon.Source

Fed Policyneutralshort-termSeptember non-farm payrolls added only 29k and core inflation came in below expectations; combined with the historical pattern of almost no rate hikes in October before midterms and dovish Fed officials' remarks, the odds of an October hike have dropped sharply. With decent data, October is likely a relatively safe window for monetary policy, meaning rates stay on hold.Source
InflationneutralThis year's inflation is mainly driven by three factors: tariffs, oil prices and AI. Oil prices have exceeded $100, near highs since the Iran war, and surging diesel prices would quickly transmit to logistics costs and exacerbate inflation.Source
Oil & Energyneutralshort-termHigh crude prices make selling crude reserves apt, and the G7 is releasing oil and diesel reserves. Because diesel is widely used in trucking, rail freight, agricultural machinery and industrial production, prioritizing the suppression of diesel prices can more directly ease immediate inflation pressure on businesses and consumers.Source
Fed Policyneutralmid-termThe Fed has relaxed assessment standards for large banks and reduced examination frequency for smaller banks, reducing banks' annual funding volatility and giving them more room to lend and invest, which amounts to targeted easing.Source
OtherneutralThe NYSE and Nasdaq will launch overnight trading sessions; nearly round-the-clock trading five days a week is a major trend in financial market development. Longer trading hours mean higher volume, better liquidity and more exchange revenue, though retail investors may struggle with overnight crash risk.Source
OtherneutralInvestors should choose holdings that let them sleep well; problematic stocks will plunge even if watched constantly, so it is more reliable to pick highly transparent, less fragile large-cap ETFs or large-cap leading stocks.Source
OtherneutralComparing Buffett's and Cathie Wood's ten-year performance shows that chasing quick profits can lead to large losses; investing cannot be rushed, and steady, slow progress may instead achieve financial freedom.Source
NVDAbullishlong-termNVIDIA approved an additional $150b buyback and launched the DGX Spark GPU; next year's AI chip revenue is forecast to grow 70%. With visible earnings growth and a valuation of only 29x, its forward P/E is expected to decline again. As the overall AI leader, it continues to raise the ceiling, which is favorable to the broader market.Source
TSLAbullishshort-termTesla delivered 486.5k vehicles in Q3, beating market expectations, with deliveries about 22k above production indicating destocking; energy storage deployments reached 13.7GWh. The solid data made the stock's rise look like a small golden pit buying opportunity.Source
TERbullishmid-termTeradyne launched a memory chip test system; benefiting from the semiconductor recovery and strong orders, Wall Street revised earnings estimates upward. After the surge, the chart looks aggressive and could make a new high, targeting above 500; the host holds 10 shares and feels little pressure.Source
AMZNneutrallong-termAmazon plans to set up an SPV to move about $8b of Nvidia Blackwell chip assets into an off-balance-sheet entity via a sale-leaseback. This old accounting maneuver packages AI off-balance-sheet liabilities similarly to pre-financial-crisis subprime off-balance-sheet financing; risks may accumulate and an AI blow-up is possible in coming years, though not imminent.Source
RIVNbearishlong-termRivian's stock has formed an L-shape after crashing from its high. Although Q3 deliveries grew 46% YoY and beat expectations, after several years its capacity and brand awareness remain limited and its CEO is unknown; once called a Tesla killer, it is now no match for Tesla at all.Source
CRCLneutralCRCL's stock performs poorly, rising pre-market but falling during the session; the launch of OUSD, a stablecoin backed by 100+ institutions, challenges USDC (Circle). While stablecoin settlement is a big future business, whether CRCL can capture a large share is uncertain, but at a $20b market cap it is not expensive and downside appears limited.Source
LLYbullishlong-termEli Lilly's long-term trend is solid, and it is developing amylin drugs to succeed existing GLP-1 therapies; its stock trend is much better than Novo Nordisk's and is in a sustained uptrend that may continue rising.Source
NVOneutrallong-termNovo Nordisk's pattern is an A-shaped spike top, having fallen more than 70% from its high; a long-term steady uptrend is far better than such a spike top, because what has fallen does not necessarily rise back, whereas what keeps rising may continue to rise.Source

Fed PolicyInflationOil & EnergyOther

2026-10-011 video

2026-10-01

This Indicator Reaches Century High, Seeking Wealth in Danger. [2026-10-01]

This Indicator Reaches Century High, Seeking Wealth in Danger. [2026-10-01]

6 bull · 2 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ MU AVGO ACN NKE+2

SPYneutralshort-termThe S&P 500 has formed four consecutive small bearish candles and is consolidating at highs; upward momentum is lacking, but there is no major bearish candle either, so the near-term view is neutral/range-bound.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe Nasdaq barely rose, with four consecutive bearish candles on the daily chart and strong consolidation characteristics. It has already consolidated for a quarter but is not necessarily going to crash, so continued short-term consolidation is normal.Source
EmploymentneutralInitial jobless claims came in at 197k, below the 200k expected, indicating limited layoffs and a balanced labor market with no signs of sharp cooling or recession. Strong employment gives the Fed justification to keep hiking, and rates are already too high.Source

Bonds & RatesneutralUS Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, with the 10-year back at 5.3% last seen in 2002. Government debt has risen to $40 trillion and annual interest to $2 trillion, a snowballing burden that will ultimately make paper currency less valuable. This currency debasement is also a driver of higher stock prices.Source
QQQbullishlong-termIf the Nasdaq follows an 11% annual return, it would break 100,000 by 2040. AI-driven profit growth, monetary debasement, and debt expansion make core tech equities scarce resources, so the long-term Nasdaq target is around 100,000.Source
AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termAI could bring a productivity leap and a qualitative change in civilization; if core tech sector profits multiply several times, a several-fold rise in their stock prices would be justified from a valuation standpoint, supporting a constructive long-term view on AI-driven tech stocks.Source
SPYbullishlong-termIf the S&P 500 maintains roughly 10% annual returns, it would reach 15,000 by 2033 and approach 30,000 by 2040. With AI-driven productivity gains, monetary debasement, and expanding government debt, equities with strong moats and profitability become scarce assets, so the long-term index target is around 30,000.Source
Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe probability of a October rate hike has fallen to 23.8%. Goldman expects the next hike in December, not October, and warns the tightening cycle is near its end. Ahead of the midterms, all sides want an off-ramp and data will look better, so the Fed will most likely hold rates at the October meeting.Source
MUbullishlong-termMicron's latest results show rapid revenue and profit growth, with gross margin at 87% and guidance for continued sequential growth. High-bandwidth memory is in short supply and AI compute infrastructure keeps expanding, putting the memory giant in an AI-driven boom cycle. Technically, today's shakeout saw volume expand and the chart may resume an upward wave, so Micron is favored to 1,200; a new high at 1,255 would support further upside.Source
AVGObearishBroadcom's stock has traded below its long-term moving average for a month, with multiple moving averages pressing down from above, so technically it could form a downward leg.Source
AVGObullishAnthropic is expected to become Broadcom's largest customer next year, which is a positive for Broadcom. As a star AI custom-chip name with better cost-performance than general-purpose chips, the technical breakdown is theoretically a buying opportunity, equivalent to bottom-fishing below the 250-day average price; left-side buying by fundamental investors is a normal choice.Source
ACNneutralAccenture's earnings were solid and enterprise demand for IT services and consulting has not deteriorated, but from an industry-trend perspective, the management consulting industry faces a relatively high risk of being replaced by AI, so the overall view is neutral-to-cautious.Source
NKEbearishNike's stock keeps falling and dropped another 4% after earnings. Although the brand is strong, it has a life cycle and a fragile moat; the overall trend is downward, and the footwear manufacturing business is exhausting and not very profitable, so this is not a bottom-fishing opportunity and the apparel/footwear industry is not recommended.Source
GOOGbullishlong-termAlphabet possesses full-stack AI technology. Although large-model competition is fierce, Alphabet is the only company with full-stack AI technology, so the host is bullish on Alphabet but will not add more; he holds 170 shares in his IBKR public account with a profit of 35,000, deeply in the money, making it the most successful stock in that account.Source
TSLAneutralTesla's price action is always characterized by big swings and violent volatility; even for a long-term holder like the speaker, the long-term return rate is only average.Source

EmploymentBonds & RatesAI CapexFed Policy

2026-09-301 video

2026-09-30

Micron Earnings Are Out. [2026-09-30]

Micron Earnings Are Out. [2026-09-30]

3 bull · 5 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

SPY AAPL MU GOOGL

SPYneutralThe S&P 500 (SPY) is consolidating and building energy; the host says it is unclear whether it is preparing to rise or fall, so he has no directional conviction. If it keeps moving sideways it is fine, and after the midterm elections uncertainty may drop, possibly allowing a year-end push.Source
Fed Policynegative for stocksCombining the ADP and JOLTS data, the US labor market has not deteriorated; employment data supports the Fed raising rates without worrying too much about job losses, implying a hawkish policy stance that pressures equities.Source
Inflationpositive for stocksshort-termBoth headline and core PCE rose less than expected year-over-year, so the host infers that October rate-hike expectations have dropped sharply, which is a mild positive for equities, though a December hike remains likely.Source

Fed PolicyInflationRecession RiskBonds & RatesAI Capex

2026-09-291 video

2026-09-29

Sold and Cleared Out One Stock, Another Major Earnings Report Tomorrow. [2026-09-29]

Sold and Cleared Out One Stock, Another Major Earnings Report Tomorrow. [2026-09-29]

5 bull · 0 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ RDDT GOOGL TSLA MU+1

SPYbullishAfter breaking above the key 7620 level, the S&P 500 has moved sideways for nearly two months in a balance between bulls and bears. If the index holds above 7620, the host leans bullish, though tight funding due to high rates makes upward moves difficult; a prolonged consolidation followed by a large bearish candle could reverse the major trend.Source
QQQneutralmid-termThe Nasdaq has been consolidating in a wide high-level range for a quarter, longer than the S&P. Although there are hints of an upward breakout, the trend is not strong, so the host can only take it one step at a time.Source
RDDTneutrallong-termReddit's revenue relies on forum ads and AI data training fees. In the AI era, it faces challenges from Google's AI overviews and agent traffic diversion, with future ads increasingly placed precisely via AI while ordinary web ads lose effectiveness. The host believes it lacks the potential to become a big winner stock (he bought low and sold at $146).Source

GOOGLbullishshort-termAlphabet has recently been adjusting along with other large positions. The host thinks its pullback is near an end and expects it to stop falling and rebound soon.Source
TSLAneutralshort-termTesla has also been adjusting. The host finds its outlook hard to call; this Friday's delivery data may decline year-over-year, earnings expectations are not good, and without earnings growth support the stock is prone to drifting with the market.Source
MUbullishshort-termMicron has a major earnings report tomorrow. Broker forecasts are strong, with EPS expected at 31.16 (up over 10x year-over-year) and revenue consensus at 50.5 billion. The host holds the stock and believes it could surge after earnings, with focus on the company's guidance for next quarter and next year.Source
Fed Policypositive for stocksshort-termThe market has priced in an October rate hike. If the market gradually withdraws October hike expectations, it would instead be bullish for stocks. The host finds UBS's view that the Fed will stay on hold in October and hike after the midterm elections reasonable.Source
InflationneutralRecently, rising USD rate-hike expectations have strengthened the dollar while the euro and Canadian dollar weakened. The host thinks the dollar index currently looks like a major bottom; if it rallies later, import purchasing power rises, helping hedge tariff costs and slightly reducing inflation pressure.Source
AI CapexneutralThe government promotes data center construction and self-regulation, but the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic still worry about AI losing control and call for slowing development. The host sarcastically remarks that only poor students would believe these top students, implying their call to slow down is not genuine.Source
Valuationpositive for stockslong-termUnlisted large-model companies can be valued at 1 to 2 trillion, supporting the market caps of listed star giants such as Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta. These companies have good liquidity and multiple profitable core products, so starting from a 2 trillion market cap does not seem too expensive.Source
AMDneutralNVIDIA's GPUs and CUDA platform are strong, so AMD needs to combine software and hardware. Acquiring Li Feifei's World Labs and appointing her as chief scientist is a strategic necessity for AMD.Source

Fed PolicyInflationAI CapexValuation

2026-09-281 video

2026-09-28

With Deep Pockets Comes Boldness, Can This Stock Still Be Bought? [2026-09-28]

With Deep Pockets Comes Boldness, Can This Stock Still Be Bought? [2026-09-28]

3 bull · 4 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ TSLA NVDA CRWD

SPYneutralThe host believes the S&P 500 index is in a consolidation phase; further upside faces various pressures, but a sudden breakdown has not occurred, and it is only affected by occasional worries and baseless speculation, so it is likely to continue moving sideways.Source
QQQneutralThe Nasdaq index is still in a consolidation stage; the moving-average system remains stuck and no longer provides much bullish or bearish momentum, and using moving averages to judge the market during consolidation often leads to misjudgments, so there is no directionality for now.Source
Oil & Energynegative for stocksshort-termThe host believes that with Iran under blockade, its crude oil is hard to sell and it is anxious, while Trump is not eager to open the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's restart of a key pipeline has reduced concerns about supply disruptions at the chokepoint and boosted exports; if talks restart this week, oil prices are expected to pull back from highs.Source

Fed Policynegative for stocksmid-termThe host believes the Fed is likely to hike again in late October, with the CME rate tool predicting a 70.3% probability, and officials who have spoken publicly are basically all hawks advocating hikes; if the Fed hikes at every meeting, the restrictive policy will transmit to financial markets and become an important unfavorable factor for the stock market.Source
InflationneutralThe Cleveland Fed forecasts August headline PCE at 3.78% and core PCE at 3.4%, and the host thinks such data is still unlikely to satisfy the Fed, indicating inflation pressure has not eased significantly and is insufficient to support a policy pivot.Source
Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksThe host believes bond market performance is a major risk for the stock market; the 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.55% and rates above 5-year maturity are all above 5%; higher risk-free rates will hit AI capital expenditure and consumer spending, depress equity valuations, and higher financing costs will reduce market leverage and tighten liquidity.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksThe host believes higher risk-free rates will hit AI capital expenditure; sharply higher borrowing and debt costs raise the hurdle for returns on AI investment and may suppress corporate enthusiasm for investment.Source
OtherneutralThe host believes not everyone will use AI agents to find high-yield deposits; people who do not care about deposit interest or bank fees will not ask AI for high-yield options even if the agent is right in front of them, so he is skeptical about the large-scale deposit-moving effect of AI.Source
TSLAneutralshort-termThe host believes Tesla's stock is unlikely to have a big rally because earnings are mediocre and robots and autonomous robotaxis have not ramped up, failing to form new growth drivers; if Q3 deliveries fall more than 10% year-on-year, the short-term stock price could be under pressure, and he expects it to be hard for the stock to rise for now, with stability already being good.Source
OtherneutralThe host believes that although SpaceX's earnings are mediocre, its stock price is quite stable, with no big rallies or declines.Source
NVDAbullishThe host believes NVIDIA is the overall leader in AI; if the AI rally continues and cloud giants and AI models keep growing, its earnings will still surge, and although the stock price is high, its valuation is declining, so it still has investment value; if the broad market does well, NVIDIA may rise steadily. The host currently holds NVIDIA but does not want to add to the position.Source
Otherpositive for stocksThe host believes that as AI becomes more powerful, cybersecurity becomes more important, and cybersecurity stocks have recently entered an upward channel with a good two-steps-forward-one-step-back rally rhythm.Source
CRWDbullishThe host points out that the cybersecurity stock CRWD has recently shown a good two-steps-forward-one-step-back upward rhythm and is in an upward channel.Source

Oil & EnergyFed PolicyInflationBonds & RatesAI CapexOther

2026-09-251 video

2026-09-25

55%, Is That Even True? [2026-09-25]

55%, Is That Even True? [2026-09-25]

9 bull · 0 bear · 5 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ BAC GOOGL MSFT ABNB+4

SPYbullishlong-termStatistics show up days far exceed down days, a gap that has created a long-term bull market in US stocks; therefore buying the broad market or mega-caps tends to make money slowly over time.Source
QQQbullishshort-termAfter two days of gains, the Nasdaq has returned to a healthy chart pattern and is expected to grind higher; the host believes the chance of a sharp drop is small and the index still has room to make new highs.Source
Fed PolicyneutralBecause US inflation has stayed above 2% for too long, the dollar has returned to a rate-hike cycle, and Warsh is determined to bring inflation down after taking office.Source

Fed Policypositive for stocksRaising the regulatory asset threshold sounds bearish but is actually bullish liquidity easing: banks previously under strict oversight will be freed to lend or buy bonds, equivalent to targeted liquidity release.Source
BACneutralBank of America is a systemically important large bank with no risk of failure, so the prediction-market bank-failure bet does not refer to it.Source
OtherneutralSmall bank failures are not a low-probability event, but because of deposit insurance, depositors are reimbursed and suffer no loss, so runs or broader social impact are unlikely.Source
AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termWhen hyperscaler capex growth slows, upstream chip semiconductor revenue growth will also decline; AI capex remains the main US stock driver, and although the rally will eventually end, it has only risen for four years and still has significant imagination space versus historical major tech revolutions.Source
GOOGLbullishlong-termAlphabet is a great company with a full-stack AI service; the host has held it for years with large gains and can continue holding, deferring taxes and benefiting from compounding.Source
MSFTbullishshort-termMicrosoft has entered an uptrend with its Copilot super app integrating Office; if it breaks the 520 resistance recently, it could extend gains and test the 550 historical high.Source
ABNBneutralAirbnb fell because investors believe AI will handle booking and marginalize travel platforms; the host views this as stray-fire selling rather than a fundamental deterioration.Source
QCOMbullishshort-termQualcomm has been rising continuously and formed an upward channel, driven by news such as Meta's VR glasses using Snapdragon chips; the host still holds 30 shares with a small profit.Source
TSLAneutralshort-termAlthough Tesla's robot production capacity is rising and it adopts a lease-only model, its earnings do not grow consistently like semiconductors and product R&D has not reached a breakthrough, so the stock is range-bound with no clear direction.Source
COSTbullishshort-termAfter earnings, Costco opened low but closed higher; the KDJ indicator is rising from the bottom with a bullish divergence, which may indicate the stock is forming a stage bottom.Source
WMTbullishlong-termWalmart and Costco are both US retail giants; Walmart is the leader with a lower valuation than Costco, and both retail stocks are long-term bullish holdings, with no intention to recommend one and disparage the other.Source

Fed PolicyOtherAI Capex

2026-09-241 video

2026-09-24

US Stocks: Consecutive Major Moves. [2026-09-24]

US Stocks: Consecutive Major Moves. [2026-09-24]

2 bull · 2 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ META WMT COST QCOM+1

SPYneutralThe S&P 500 edged lower today; it has not formed a downtrend but lacks upward momentum, so treat it as a consolidation pattern. The year-to-date gain already exceeds the historical average annual return and follows four consecutive years of double-digit gains, making a pause reasonable.Source
QQQneutralThe Nasdaq was little changed today, closing higher after a lower open with a small bullish candle that suggests tentative stabilization, but it remains in a range-bound trend. The rebound is not smooth and there is no catalyst for a sharp decline, leaving it stuck in a narrow range.Source
Geopoliticsneutrallong-termAfter the US-China summit, relations have warmed; worsening relations would disrupt supply chains and be a major negative for US heavyweight stocks, while warming ties benefit most US-listed companies. However, the summit alone will not directly drive a big rally in US or A-shares; politics affects only very short-term moves, while the long-term trend depends on the macro economy, earnings growth, monetary policy, and investor attitude.Source

Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksUS Treasury yields remain high and long-term rates are rising, so bond prices will continue to fall and will only bottom after rates bottom. The main risk for bonds is interest-rate risk rather than sovereign credit risk; with tech giants and governments increasing bond issuance, it is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish, and another surge in yields could trigger small-bank risks.Source
CryptoneutralThe US is considering promoting USD stablecoins overseas to consolidate the dollar's reserve currency status. Compliant stablecoins are pegged to short-term Treasuries, so as their scale grows, holdings of US debt increase in tandem. USD stablecoins have become the 11th largest holder of US Treasuries and will likely increase further, becoming an important funding source for the US.Source
METAbullishshort-termMeta showed strong momentum among tech giants this week. Its VR hardware weighs only about 100 grams and received IMAX certification, while its AI glasses integrate Muse and can interact via WhatsApp, marking major breakthroughs from hardware to AI. Several firms raised ratings and targets, and based on the current trend the stock may make a new high.Source
Recession RiskneutralThe economy is currently doing quite well, so there is not much safe-haven sentiment for now. Although there are recession concerns that would make buying Costco and Walmart a defensive trade, such defensive demand is not strong at present.Source
WMTbullishCompared with Costco, Walmart has a better valuation and more stores; as a defensive hedge against recession, if forced to choose one, Walmart is preferred.Source
COSTneutrallong-termCostco's revenue and same-store sales both beat expectations last quarter; same-store sales growth of 6.7% passed muster, membership renewal rates were stable, and executive black card members contributed strongly. However, its 45x P/E is rich, the stock lacks an upward trend, and with no reason to sell off, it may consolidate in the $850-$1000 range for a long time. Compared with Walmart, its valuation is less attractive, and Walmart is preferred if choosing one.Source
QCOMneutralshort-termQualcomm renewed its cellular patent license agreement with Apple; these patents are its moat, but Apple's in-house baseband chips make it hard for Qualcomm's stock to rise, and the agreement does not help much. The host still holds 30 shares at a profit and will temporarily hold, but may sell before long.Source
RCLbearishshort-termRCL is a heavy-asset service business and not the best industry; the recent surge in oil prices has raised costs, and because tickets are sold 6-12 months in advance, the company must absorb the cost pressure. Management cut full-year EPS by 60 cents due to oil prices, and the stock is currently in a downtrend, so buying is not recommended.Source

GeopoliticsBonds & RatesCryptoRecession Risk

2026-09-231 video

2026-09-23

Trump Sells Tech Stocks. McDonald's Plummets, Is It an Opportunity? [2026-09-23]

Trump Sells Tech Stocks. McDonald's Plummets, Is It an Opportunity? [2026-09-23]

8 bull · 1 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ MRVL SOXX MU META+4

SPYneutralThe S&P 500 rally is not smooth and gets sold into just as it emerges; if no trend forms, the index may continue consolidating within a range and requires a few more days of observation.Source
QQQneutralThe Nasdaq broke out only to pull back below its prior high, showing the rally lacks smoothness and bulls lack conviction; wait for a slow-bull trend to resume and observe for a few days.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksThe PMI hit a new high mainly driven by strong consumer spending, AI business investment, and defense spending; the US economy is expanding solidly, with AI business investment a key driver.Source

Bonds & Ratespositive for stocksmid-termUS Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 5-year yield breaking above 5%; markets expect the Fed to hike again in October and December, keeping policy restrictive and weighing on high-valuation stocks.Source
MRVLbullishMarvell is an optical-communication name in the semiconductor space; its chart action remains sound, and as long as the trend is intact it can still be treated as being in an upward phase.Source
SOXXbullishThe semiconductor sector, especially memory, has been strong in recent years with upside odds outweighing downside, making it the most profitable part of the AI theme; the semiconductor index should not be easily shorted.Source
MUbullishThe semiconductor and memory sectors have been strong in recent years, with upside odds greater than downside, and are the most profitable part of the AI theme; therefore, even if one does not go long, one should not easily short memory names like Micron.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksAI giants previously proposed slowing model iteration, but the verbal agreement quickly collapsed; OpenAI and Anthropic both launched new models and started a price war, showing AI development has not slowed and the AI trade is warming up.Source
METAbullishshort-termMeta is holding a two-day livestream event to showcase breakthroughs in AI, smart glasses, and VR; its stock broke out of a multi-month downtrend and is rebounding, very likely to make a new high.Source
IONQneutralThe quantum computing sector lacks sector-wide momentum, commercialization remains very distant, and price swings are driven mainly by speculative capital, warranting a neutral stance.Source
DISneutralDisney shares have held around the 100 level with limited downside, fundamentals and dividends are stable, but the stock is likely bottoming and the timing of an uptrend is highly uncertain, as it is not in a favored theme.Source
VOObullishIf investors keep making mistakes picking individual stocks, they may simply buy the VOO S&P 500 index fund to at least match the broader market and avoid underperforming it.Source
MCDbearishmid-termMcDonald's has fallen from 334 to 238, making it 30% cheaper and somewhat attractive, but high inflation and weak traffic are persistent headwinds; the industry must fight for share, and after a rebound the stock may grind lower, so bottom-fishing should wait; with a 3% dividend yield, further declines would make it suitable for dividend investors to accumulate.Source

AI CapexBonds & Rates

2026-09-221 video

2026-09-22

Amazon Is Panicking. [2026-09-22]

Amazon Is Panicking. [2026-09-22]

6 bull · 1 bear · 11 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DIA META AAPL ARM+7

SPYbullishlong-termA day of rest after yesterday's sharp rally is acceptable; if the rest of the week climbs a bit, the index can hit a record high. If things go smoothly this year, the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 points.Source
QQQbullishmid-termThe Nasdaq hit a record high today, led by tech stocks, making the broader uptrend more reliable; after the new high, the Nasdaq can continue to aim higher.Source
DIAneutralThe Dow fell 0.36% today and looks weak; in a pattern of strong Nasdaq, following S&P, and weak Dow, the Dow will be the weakest of the three major indexes.Source

GeopoliticsneutralThere are new developments in US-Iran relations with the Iranian president visiting the US; although partially denied by officials, the news has already had a positive impact on markets and pushed oil prices lower.Source
Oil & Energynegative for stocksmid-termBrent crude fell to $98 today; if it can stay below the key $110 level, oil prices are likely to gradually decline, but if it breaks out to $130 or above, financial markets will become quite tense.Source
InflationneutralIf oil prices stay high, inflation will remain the Fed officials' biggest headache; current inflation is similar to a year ago under Powell and may stay above 2%, which officials find intolerable.Source
Fed Policyneutralmid-termCentral bank officials have been hawkish recently, and the Fed may gradually hike further from the 3.75%-4% range; however, the magnitude and duration of this round of hikes are expected to be limited.Source
Otherpositive for stockslong-termLast week's AI safety threat narrative was likely a shakeout; due to the prisoner's dilemma and more players competing, AI model iteration cannot really slow down—AI will not stop, and the market has re-activated the AI rally.Source
METAneutralshort-termMeta is a key focus this week as its Muse app topped the Apple free app chart and re-activated the AI rally; although unsure whether Jefferies' 'killer app' call is reliable, if a tech giant delivers an AI killer app, its company value would rise substantially.Source
AAPLneutralmid-termThe host believes Apple, Google, and Microsoft could all launch cross-app AI agents similar to Muse.Source
ARMneutralAmid the cross-app AI agent trend, ARM's mobile architecture also benefits, and it surged alongside Intel and AMD due to Muse's popularity.Source
AMDbullishshort-termDriven by Muse's boost to CPU demand, AMD continued to rise with a small bullish candle and good momentum; the rally is expected to continue by inertia.Source
MSFTneutralmid-termThe host expects Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and others to quickly follow up with cross-app AI agents.Source
GOOGLneutralmid-termThe host expects Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and others to quickly follow up with cross-app AI agents.Source
AMZNneutralmid-termAI shopping agents like Muse may bypass Amazon and threaten its advertising business, but AI-agent shopping is the trend; Amazon will also transform merchant ads into AI recommendations with estimated better results.Source
SHOPneutralmid-termShopify actively embraces AI agents and partners with Meta; since merchants are mostly independent sites, it does not worry about AI stealing traffic. With several AI giants helping sell products, Shopify stands to earn more.Source
MUbullishshort-termThe host bought Micron and is already sitting on profits, planning to keep holding; the AI and semiconductor rally has re-activated and storage stocks are back in an uptrend, with next week's Micron earnings expected to grow 10x YoY, so there is no need to rush to sell.Source
CRCLbullishlong-termCircle received a $100 million equity investment from Binance, theoretically a major positive; although the stock is not rising and is still shaking out retail investors with no main rally yet, the chart looks bottomed and the host will continue to hold.Source

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